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Bangladesh W vs Nepal W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

SAFF Championship Women 2024 Dasharath Rangasala, Kathmandu
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Chakma M.
55' Event
Karki A.
81' Event
Chakma R.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Bangladesh W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Bangladesh W
15%
Draws
51%
Nepal W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nepal W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nepal W come out ahead of Bangladesh W on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Nepal W's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Nepal W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Nepal W, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Bangladesh W Clean Sheet 10%
Nepal W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bangladesh W Nepal W
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 11 15
Draws 5 4
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.94 2.45
Goals Conceded 2.23 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 3, 2026 SAFF Championship Women
Nepal W vs Bangladesh W
1:2
Oct 30, 2024 SAFF Championship Women
Bangladesh W vs Nepal W
2:1
Sep 28, 2023 Asian Games Women
Nepal W vs Bangladesh W
1:1
Jul 16, 2023 Friendly International Women
Bangladesh W vs Nepal W
0:1
Jul 13, 2023 Friendly International Women
Bangladesh W vs Nepal W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bangladesh W Compare

Top Goalscorer Chakma M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chakma R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Nepal W Compare

Top Goalscorer Karki A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bangladesh W 10 / 100
Nepal W 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bangladesh W Nepal W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nepal W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bangladesh W found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (31 games).

Nepal W has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Nepal W's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Bangladesh W VS Nepal W
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
3 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bangladesh W

(Home)
21 Sept
Bangladesh W
0 : 0
Myanmar W
17 Sept
Bangladesh W
0 : 6
South Korea W
14 Sept
North Korea W
10 : 0
Bangladesh W
06 Jun
Bangladesh W
1 : 3
India W
03 Jun
Nepal W
1 : 2
Bangladesh W
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Nepal W

(Away)
03 Jun
Nepal W
1 : 2
Bangladesh W
31 May
Nepal W
2 : 0
Sri Lanka W
25 May
Bhutan W
0 : 1
Nepal W
02 Dec
Nepal W
0 : 1
Chinese Taipei W
26 Nov
Indonesia W
2 : 1
Nepal W
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Bangladesh W 7
Bhutan W 1
Nepal W 2
India W 1
Final
Bangladesh W 2
Nepal W 1