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Barbadas-Bentraces vs Noia

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
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Match Events

49' Event
Marcelo

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Barbadas-Bentraces and Noia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Barbadas-Bentraces.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Barbadas-Bentraces
15%
Draws
57%
Noia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Noia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Noia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Noia a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Barbadas-Bentraces Clean Sheet 23%
Noia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barbadas-Bentraces Noia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 5
Draws 5 6
Losses 22 19
Goals Scored 0.67 0.77
Goals Conceded 2.1 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barbadas-Bentraces vs Noia
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Barbadas-Bentraces
4:1
Apr 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barbadas-Bentraces vs Noia
0:1
Dec 6, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Barbadas-Bentraces
1:1
Apr 8, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barbadas-Bentraces vs Noia
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barbadas-Bentraces Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcelo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Noia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barbadas-Bentraces 16 / 100
Noia 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barbadas-Bentraces Noia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Noia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Noia let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Barbadas-Bentraces found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Noia's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Barbadas-Bentraces VS Noia
1 Goals Scored 0.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Barbadas-Bentraces

(Home)
10 May
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 2
Alondras
03 May
Lugo B
5 : 1
Barbadas-Bentraces
26 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 4
Gran Pena
19 Apr
Silva SD
3 : 1
Barbadas-Bentraces
12 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
3 : 2
Celtiga
Page 1 of 6

Noia

(Away)
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Silva SD
5 : 2
Noia
25 Apr
Noia
3 : 0
Celtiga
19 Apr
Cambados
0 : 3
Noia
12 Apr
Noia
0 : 2
CD Boiro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)