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Barbados vs Aruba

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Series Sir Vivian Richards Stadium
Barbados Logo

Barbados

0 - 3
FT
Aruba Logo

Aruba

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Barbados play Aruba in the CONCACAF Series. It looks like a close match. Recently, Barbados averaged 1.59 goals scored and 2.41 conceded. Aruba averaged 1.47 goals scored and 2.23 conceded. In past meetings, Barbados won 3, Aruba won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 15, 2025 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Barbados and 1.50 for Aruba. This points to a Aruba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Barbados
18%
Draws
44%
Aruba
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Aruba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Barbados picked up more points recently compared to Aruba.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 72%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Barbados Clean Sheet 16%
Aruba Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barbados Aruba
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 10
Draws 6 4
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.59 1.47
Goals Conceded 2.41 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2025 CONCACAF Series
Barbados vs Aruba
0:3
Jun 4, 2025 World Championship
Barbados vs Aruba
1:1
Jun 14, 2015 World Championship
Barbados vs Aruba
1:0
Jun 11, 2015 World Championship
Aruba vs Barbados
0:2
Sep 28, 2012 Caribbean Cup
Barbados vs Aruba
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barbados Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Poulina Q.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Romano J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barbados 37 / 100
Aruba 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barbados Aruba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aruba or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.4%
1.52
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Barbados attacking → ← attacking Aruba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barbados scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Aruba let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Barbados went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Aruba lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 34
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00