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Barcelona SC vs Botafogo RJ

South America South America

Copa Libertadores Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Barcelona SC play Botafogo RJ in the Copa Libertadores. It looks like a close match. Recently, Barcelona SC averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.04 conceded. Botafogo RJ averaged 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Barcelona SC won 2, Botafogo RJ won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 11, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Barcelona SC and 1.44 for Botafogo RJ. This points to a Botafogo RJ double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Barcelona SC
32%
Draws
34%
Botafogo RJ
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Botafogo RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • Barcelona SC picked up more points recently compared to Botafogo RJ.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Barcelona SC Clean Sheet 16%
Botafogo RJ Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barcelona SC Botafogo RJ
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.07 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2026 Copa Libertadores
Botafogo RJ vs Barcelona SC
0:1
Mar 4, 2026 Copa Libertadores
Barcelona SC vs Botafogo RJ
1:1
May 3, 2017 Copa Libertadores
Botafogo RJ vs Barcelona SC
0:2
Apr 21, 2017 Copa Libertadores
Barcelona SC vs Botafogo RJ
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barcelona SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Villalba H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Botafogo RJ Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Martins
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barcelona SC 34 / 100
Botafogo RJ 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barcelona SC Botafogo RJ

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Botafogo RJ or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Barcelona SC attacking → ← attacking Botafogo RJ

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barcelona SC scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Botafogo RJ let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Barcelona SC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Botafogo RJ lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 46
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00