Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bari vs Cavese

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group C Stadio San Nicola, Bari
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Mantovani V.
46'
Sub
Darboe E. In: Mendicino L.
Out: Darboe E.
53'
Sub
Esposito G. In: Fella G.
Out: Esposito G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group C game between Bari and Cavese finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bari.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Bari
30%
Draws
19%
Cavese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Bari carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Bari taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Bari Clean Sheet 68%
Cavese Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bari Cavese
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 6
Draws 7 12
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.03 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Serie C - Group C
Bari vs Cavese
3:0
Jul 29, 2025 Club Friendly
Bari vs Cavese
0:0
Feb 3, 2021 Serie C - Group C
Bari vs Cavese
1:1
Oct 7, 2020 Serie C - Group C
Cavese vs Bari
2:3
Feb 23, 2020 Serie C - Group C
Cavese vs Bari
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bari Compare

Top Goalscorer Mantovani V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maggiore G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Cavese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bari 95 / 100
Cavese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bari Cavese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bari Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Bari stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Cavese conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Difficult form: Cavese registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bari VS Cavese
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bari

(Home)
21 Aug
Bari
3 : 0
Cavese
16 Aug
Bari
1 : 0
Casarano
28 Jul
Lanciano
0 : 1
Bari
22 May
Sudtirol
0 : 0
Bari
15 May
Bari
0 : 0
Sudtirol
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Cavese

(Away)
21 Aug
Bari
3 : 0
Cavese
15 Aug
Campobasso
2 : 0
Cavese
06 Aug
Cavese
0 : 1
Juve Stabia
30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0
Sarnese
26 Apr
Cavese
1 : 1
Cosenza
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Potenza 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
2 Bari 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
3 Audace Cerignola 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
4 Picerno 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
5 Sorrento 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
6 Inter U23 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
7 Foggia 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
8 Altamura 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
9 Scafatese 1 0 1 0 3:3 1
10 Barletta 1 0 1 0 3:3 1
11 Giugliano 1 0 1 0 3:3 1
12 Casertana 1 0 1 0 3:3 1
13 A.C. Savoia 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
14 Salernitana 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
15 Catania 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
16 Monopoli 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
17 Cosenza 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
18 Casarano 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
19 Cavese 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
20 Crotone 1 0 0 1 0:1 -6
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)