Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bari vs Modena

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio San Nicola, Bari
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Moncini G.
(Penalty)
31' Event
Adorni D.
Own Goal
46'
Sub
Wiafe S. In: Massolin Y.
Out: Wiafe S.

AI Match Summary

Bari in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bari.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Bari
20%
Draws
35%
Modena
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Bari have won more games recently than Modena.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Bari taking it.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Bari Clean Sheet 68%
Modena Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bari Modena
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 11
Draws 5 6
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.21 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.21 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Serie B
Bari vs Modena
3:1
Sep 13, 2025 Serie B
Modena vs Bari
3:0
Apr 25, 2025 Serie B
Bari vs Modena
1:2
Aug 23, 2024 Serie B
Modena vs Bari
2:1
Apr 1, 2024 Serie B
Modena vs Bari
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bari Compare

Top Goalscorer Cuni M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Modena Compare

Top Goalscorer Ambrosino G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bari 59 / 100
Modena 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bari Modena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bari Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bari went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Bari's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Modena has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Bari VS Modena
1.38 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bari

(Home)
19 Sept
Sorrento
1 : 2
Bari
15 Sept
Bari
0 : 0
Potenza
11 Sept
Altamura
0 : 3
Bari
05 Sept
Bari
1 : 0
Casarano
01 Sept
Bari
2 : 1
Picerno
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Modena

(Away)
20 Sept
Modena
2 : 1
Empoli
12 Sept
Sudtirol
1 : 1
Modena
06 Sept
Modena
0 : 1
Avellino
28 Aug
Cremonese
0 : 3
Modena
22 Aug
Benevento
1 : 2
Modena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)