Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bari vs Modena

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio San Nicola, Bari
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Moncini G.
(Penalty)
31' Event
Adorni D.
Own Goal
46'
Sub
Wiafe S. In: Massolin Y.
Out: Wiafe S.

AI Match Summary

Bari in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bari.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Bari
40%
Draws
29%
Modena
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Modena have won more games recently than Bari.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Bari Clean Sheet 19%
Modena Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bari Modena
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 8 10
Draws 8 5
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 0.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Serie B
Bari vs Modena
3:1
Sep 13, 2025 Serie B
Modena vs Bari
3:0
Apr 25, 2025 Serie B
Bari vs Modena
1:2
Aug 23, 2024 Serie B
Modena vs Bari
2:1
Apr 1, 2024 Serie B
Modena vs Bari
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bari Compare

Top Goalscorer Cuni M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Modena Compare

Top Goalscorer Ambrosino G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bari 32 / 100
Modena 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bari Modena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bari went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Modena's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Modena's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Bari VS Modena
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bari

(Home)
28 Jul
Lanciano
0 : 1
Bari
22 May
Sudtirol
0 : 0
Bari
15 May
Bari
0 : 0
Sudtirol
08 May
Catanzaro
2 : 3
Bari
01 May
Bari
2 : 0
Entella
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Modena

(Away)
01 Aug
Trento
0 : 1
Modena
28 Jul
Cagliari
1 : 0
Modena
25 Jul
Modena
5 : 0
Virtus Bolzano
12 May
Modena
0 : 1
Juve Stabia
08 May
Avellino
1 : 0
Modena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)