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Barnsley vs Crewe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

EFL Cup Oakwell, Barnsley
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Thibaut A.
Assist: McNeill C.
23'
Bland J.
29' Event
Cleary R.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Barnsley
30%
Draws
62%
Crewe
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Crewe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Crewe come out ahead of Barnsley on wins alone.
  • Crewe are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Crewe arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Barnsley, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Barnsley have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Barnsley Clean Sheet 10%
Crewe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barnsley Crewe
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 10
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.32 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 25, 2026 EFL Cup
Barnsley vs Crewe
3:2
Jul 29, 2023 Club Friendly
Barnsley vs Crewe
2:1
Nov 26, 2022 FA Cup
Barnsley vs Crewe
3:0
Jul 9, 2022 Club Friendly
Barnsley vs Crewe
0:0
Jan 5, 2020 FA Cup
Crewe vs Barnsley
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barnsley Compare

Top Goalscorer Cleary R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Noslin T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Crewe Compare

Top Goalscorer Thibaut A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ewusi J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barnsley 10 / 100
Crewe 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barnsley Crewe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Crewe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Barnsley scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Crewe conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Barnsley remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Barnsley VS Crewe
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
2.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Barnsley

(Home)
06 Oct
Fleetwood Town
4 : 1
Barnsley
22 Sept
Barnsley
3 : 4
Leeds U21
19 Sept
Barnsley
1 : 1
Leicester
15 Sept
Peterborough
4 : 3
Barnsley
12 Sept
Plymouth
3 : 0
Barnsley
Page 1 of 6

Crewe

(Away)
06 Oct
Blackpool
3 : 2
Crewe
03 Oct
Crewe
3 : 1
Bristol Rovers
26 Sept
Rotherham
1 : 1
Crewe
22 Sept
Crewe
4 : 1
Aston Villa U21
19 Sept
Crewe
1 : 1
Shrewsbury
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Chesterfield 0
Salford 1
Shrewsbury 2
Burton 1
Blackburn 2
Mansfield 0
Sheffield Utd 3
Ipswich -
TBD -
Leicester 1
Northampton 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff 3
Swindon 2
Norwich 4
Milton Keynes Dons 1
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 2
Huddersfield 1
TBD -
Everton -
Sheffield Wed 1
Bolton 0
Wolves 3
Port Vale 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Barnet 1
QPR 1
Millwall 2
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Rotherham 1
West Brom 4
Sunderland -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 2
Oldham 0
TBD -
Hull City -
Wycombe 1
Stevenage 2
Bromley 1
Reading 2
Swansea 0
Birmingham 1
TBD -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Tottenham -
TBD -
Cheltenham 1
Charlton 3
Chelsea -
TBD -
Gillingham 0
Luton 3
Nottingham -
TBD -
TBD -
Leeds -
Bristol City 0
Walsall 1
Leyton Orient 2
Oxford Utd 0
Bradford City 2
Rochdale 0
Burnley 2
Notts County 1
Watford 1
Crawley Town 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Peterborough 1
Barnsley 2
Wigan 1
Crewe 2
Accrington 1
Colchester 0
Southampton 2
West Ham 3
Portsmouth 1
Fulham -
TBD -
AFC Wimbledon 2
Newport 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stockport County 1
Doncaster 2
Middlesbrough 1
Wrexham 0
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grimsby 1
Blackpool 3
Derby 1
Lincoln City 2
Plymouth 2
Exeter 0
TBD -
Coventry -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Fleetwood Town 4
Shrewsbury 0
Blackburn 1
Sheffield Utd 2
Ipswich 3
Leicester 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
Cardiff 1
Norwich 2
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 0
Everton 4
Sheffield Wed 0
Wolves 2
Cambridge Utd 0
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 3
West Brom 2
Sunderland -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Hull City 2
Stevenage 0
Reading 3
Birmingham 1
Brentford 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Tottenham 5
Charlton 1
Chelsea 2
Luton 0
Nottingham 0
Leeds 2
Walsall 0
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 1
Burnley 0
Watford 1
Peterborough 5
Barnsley 3
Crewe 2
Southampton 1
West Ham 4
Fulham 3
AFC Wimbledon 0
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Doncaster 1
Middlesbrough 3
Bournemouth -
TBD -
Blackpool 1
Lincoln City 4
Plymouth 2
Coventry 4
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Sheffield Utd 0
Ipswich 2
Arsenal 4
Manchester City 5
Norwich 0
Manchester United 2
Brighton 3
Everton 1
Wolves 0
Millwall 0
Newcastle Utd 1
Sunderland 1
Hull City 0
Reading 1
Brentford 2
Liverpool 3
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 6
Leeds 3
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 3
Peterborough 4
Barnsley 3
West Ham 2
Fulham 3
Crystal Palace 3
Middlesbrough 0
Bournemouth 4
Lincoln City 0
Coventry 1
Aston Villa 3
1/8-finals
Fleetwood Town -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
Brighton -
Everton -
Newcastle Utd -
Sunderland -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
Chelsea -
Bradford City -
Peterborough -
Fulham -
Crystal Palace -
Bournemouth -
Aston Villa -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -