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Barra Mansa vs Mageense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca C
Our Tip

Match Events

48' Event
Oliveira D.
66' Event
Silva E.
90' Event
Roberto A.

AI Match Summary

The Carioca C game between Barra Mansa and Mageense finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Barra Mansa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Barra Mansa
35%
Draws
16%
Mageense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Barra Mansa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Barra Mansa come out ahead of Mageense on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Barra Mansa's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 20%
Mageense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barra Mansa Mageense
Matches Played 29 20
Wins 8 5
Draws 8 1
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 0.86 1.05
Goals Conceded 1.28 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Carioca C
Barra Mansa vs Mageense
3:0
Oct 31, 2024 Carioca B2
Barra Mansa vs Mageense
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barra Mansa Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Silva E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Mageense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barra Mansa 40 / 100
Mageense 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barra Mansa Mageense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Barra Mansa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Mageense conceded in 94% of 18 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Barra Mansa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Mageense lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Barra Mansa VS Mageense
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Barra Mansa

(Home)
23 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 2
Buzios
19 Jul
Buzios
3 : 0
Barra Mansa
12 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 0
Uni Souza
07 Jul
Uni Souza
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
03 Jul
Barra Mansa
2 : 2
Cardoso Moreira
Page 1 of 6

Mageense

(Away)
12 Jul
Mageense
:
EC Vera Cruz
06 Jul
EC Vera Cruz
:
Mageense
07 Jun
Barra Mansa
3 : 0
Mageense
01 Jun
Mageense
0 : 4
Rio Barra
24 May
Buzios
1 : 1
Mageense
Page 1 of 4

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cardoso Moreira 8 7 1 0 15:2 22
2 Tigres Brasil 8 5 2 1 15:6 17
3 Campos AA 8 5 2 1 15:7 17
4 Grande Rio Brescia Clube 7 3 1 3 8:6 10
5 Mageense 6 2 1 3 6:13 7
6 Barcelona EC 8 2 0 6 5:21 6
7 Itaborai Profute 6 1 3 2 9:9 6
8 EC Vera Cruz 8 1 0 7 9:21 3
Promotion - Carioca C (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barra Mansa 7 4 1 2 9:5 13
2 Rio Barra 8 4 1 3 13:10 13
3 Buzios 7 3 3 1 15:6 12
4 Uni Souza 8 3 1 4 15:11 10
5 Uniao Central 8 3 1 4 11:15 10
6 Ceres 6 3 0 3 10:11 9
7 Caac Brazil 8 2 1 5 8:16 7
8 Independente RJ 7 1 2 4 4:8 5
Promotion - Carioca C (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Placement Play Offs)