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Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2025
Barra Mansa Logo

Barra Mansa

1 - 1
FT
Serra Macaense Logo

Serra Macaense

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Vini Souza
27' Event
Maicon
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Carioca B2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Barra Mansa
35%
Draws
37%
Serra Macaense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Serra Macaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Serra Macaense have won more games recently than Barra Mansa.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Carioca B2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 55%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 27%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barra Mansa Serra Macaense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 9 10
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 0.94 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2025 Carioca B2
Barra Mansa vs Serra Macaense
1:1
Oct 14, 2024 Carioca B2
Serra Macaense vs Barra Mansa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barra Mansa Compare

Top Goalscorer Vini Souza
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Serra Macaense Compare

Top Goalscorer Maicon
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barra Mansa 38 / 100
Serra Macaense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barra Mansa Serra Macaense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Macaense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Serra Macaense conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Barra Mansa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Serra Macaense has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Barra Mansa VS Serra Macaense
1 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 60%
25% Over 2.5 40%
13% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Barra Mansa

(Home)
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
14 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 4
7 de Abril
06 Sept
Friburguense
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
31 Aug
Barra Mansa
2 : 2
Campos AA
23 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 2
Buzios
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Serra Macaense

(Away)
20 Sept
Buzios
0 : 2
Serra Macaense
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
07 Sept
7 de Abril
2 : 2
Serra Macaense
30 Aug
Serra Macaense
0 : 1
Friburguense
09 Nov
Belford Roxo
2 : 0
Serra Macaense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Cruz RJ 8 7 1 0 14:3 22
2 Belford Roxo 8 5 1 2 17:8 16
3 Goytacaz 8 5 1 2 13:8 16
4 Macae 8 4 1 3 13:5 13
5 Serra Macaense 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
6 Paraty 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
7 7 de Abril 8 2 2 4 11:13 8
8 FC Rio de Janeiro 8 1 0 7 7:25 3
9 Barra Mansa 8 0 2 6 4:18 2
Promotion - Carioca B2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Main)