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Barwell vs Leiston

England England

Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Hakeem Z.
42' Event
Mills A.
62' Event
Sayer H.

AI Match Summary

The Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 game between Barwell and Leiston finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leiston.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Barwell
20%
Draws
46%
Leiston
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leiston

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Leiston carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Barwell Clean Sheet 13%
Leiston Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Barwell Leiston
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 11
Draws 5 10
Losses 19 7
Goals Scored 1.1 1.64
Goals Conceded 2.21 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Leiston
2:3
Oct 18, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Leiston vs Barwell
2:2
Mar 15, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Leiston vs Barwell
3:4
Sep 21, 2024 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Leiston
0:0
Feb 10, 2024 Southern League Premier Central
Leiston vs Barwell
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Barwell Compare

Top Goalscorer Hakeem Z.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mancinelli P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Leiston Compare

Top Goalscorer Mills A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sayer H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Barwell 31 / 100
Leiston 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Barwell Leiston

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leiston Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leiston let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Barwell's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Barwell remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Barwell VS Leiston
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
83% Over 1.5 88%
67% Over 2.5 75%
17% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Barwell

(Home)
04 Jul
Quorn
1 : 2
Barwell
25 Apr
Barwell
3 : 1
Stortford
18 Apr
Barwell
0 : 3
Bury Town
11 Apr
Needham Market
2 : 1
Barwell
06 Apr
Barwell
0 : 2
Spalding United
Page 1 of 6

Leiston

(Away)
22 Aug
Stourbridge
2 : 2
Leiston
15 Aug
Leiston
1 : 2
Rushall
11 Aug
Leiston
3 : 1
Stortford
08 Aug
Anstey Nomads
1 : 1
Leiston
28 Jul
Gorleston
1 : 3
Leiston
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Harborough 42 28 11 3 81:33 95
2 Spalding United 42 25 10 7 103:54 85
3 Real Bedford 42 24 9 9 84:47 81
4 Kettering 42 21 9 12 74:52 72
5 Halesowen 42 20 10 12 85:60 70
6 Needham Market 42 20 10 12 64:53 70
7 Redditch 42 21 7 14 67:58 70
8 Quorn 42 19 8 15 78:71 65
9 Worcester 42 17 12 13 64:44 63
10 Leiston 42 16 15 11 65:58 63
11 Stratford 42 17 10 15 61:54 61
12 Banbury 42 17 9 16 51:56 60
13 Bury Town 42 15 13 14 61:53 58
14 Alvechurch 42 14 8 20 49:55 50
15 Stourbridge 42 12 14 16 58:68 50
16 Stortford 42 13 10 19 53:67 49
17 Stamford 42 13 8 21 41:64 47
18 Bromsgrove 42 12 8 22 52:73 44
19 St Ives Town 42 9 12 21 50:73 39
20 Barwell 42 9 8 25 52:85 35
21 Royston Town 42 5 10 27 35:82 25
22 Sudbury 42 6 7 29 47:115 25
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 (Play Offs)