Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Basel vs Thun

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League 2025/2026 St. Jakob-Park, Basel
Basel Logo

Basel

3 - 1
FT
Thun Logo

Thun

Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Fehr F.
27'
Matoshi V.
38'
Rastoder E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Basel in this Super League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Basel.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Basel
40%
Draws
29%
Thun
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Basel haven't matched Thun's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Basel Clean Sheet 12%
Thun Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Basel Thun
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 9 15
Draws 6 4
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 0.88 2
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Thun
3:1
Apr 18, 2026 Super League
Thun vs Basel
3:1
Feb 1, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Thun
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 Super League
Thun vs Basel
1:3
Jan 11, 2025 Club Friendly
Basel vs Thun
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Basel Compare

Top Goalscorer Metinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ajeti Al.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Thun Compare

Top Goalscorer Matoshi V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Basel 30 / 100
Thun 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Basel Thun

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Thun has conceded goals in 89% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Basel found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Basel went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Basel VS Thun
0.88 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Basel

(Home)
25 Jul
Servette
0 : 1
Basel
18 Jul
Basel
0 : 0
Juventus
11 Jul
Basel
2 : 2
Winterthur
08 Jul
Basel
0 : 3
Yverdon
26 Jun
Rapperswil-Jona
0 : 3
Basel
Page 1 of 6

Thun

(Away)
28 Jul
Din. Zagreb
3 : 2
Thun
25 Jul
Luzern
1 : 3
Thun
21 Jul
Thun
1 : 1
Din. Zagreb
11 Jul
Thun
1 : 2
Mannheim
11 Jul
Thun
1 : 1
Elversberg
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Thun382431180:5275
2St. Gallen382010872:4770
3Lugano381910959:4267
4Sion381615763:4063
5Basel381681455:5856
6Young Boys3815101380:6955
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)