Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Basel vs Thun

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League 2025/2026 St. Jakob-Park, Basel
Basel Logo

Basel

3 - 1
FT
Thun Logo

Thun

Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Fehr F.
27'
Matoshi V.
38'
Rastoder E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Basel in this Super League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Basel.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Basel
20%
Draws
40%
Thun
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Thun haven't matched Basel's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Basel a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 89%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 89%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Basel Clean Sheet 10%
Thun Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Basel Thun
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 4 6
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.72 1.9
Goals Conceded 2.1 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Thun
4:2
May 2, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Thun
3:1
Apr 18, 2026 Super League
Thun vs Basel
3:1
Feb 1, 2026 Super League
Basel vs Thun
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 Super League
Thun vs Basel
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Basel Compare

Top Goalscorer Metinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ajeti Al.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Thun Compare

Top Goalscorer Matoshi V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Basel 40 / 100
Thun 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Basel Thun

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Thun has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Basel found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Thun lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Basel VS Thun
2.88 Goals Scored 2.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Basel

(Home)
20 Sept
Basel
1 : 3
St. Gallen
13 Sept
Luzern
2 : 4
Basel
06 Sept
Basel
1 : 3
Lugano
03 Sept
Basel
1 : 2
Sion
29 Aug
Young Boys
3 : 3
Basel
Page 1 of 6

Thun

(Away)
20 Sept
Vaduz
1 : 2
Thun
16 Sept
Thun
2 : 4
Servette
12 Sept
Thun
0 : 1
Grasshoppers
06 Sept
Sion
3 : 2
Thun
02 Sept
Thun
0 : 0
Lausanne
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thun 38 24 3 11 80:52 75
2 St. Gallen 38 20 10 8 72:47 70
3 Lugano 38 19 10 9 59:42 67
4 Sion 38 16 15 7 63:40 63
5 Basel 38 16 8 14 55:58 56
6 Young Boys 38 15 10 13 80:69 55
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)