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Stadium Background

Bashkimi vs Vardar

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Zakaric G.
24'
Murati R.
33'
Matic M.

AI Match Summary

Vardar in this 1. MFL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vardar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Bashkimi
35%
Draws
38%
Vardar
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Vardar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vardar lately — more wins on the board than Bashkimi.
  • 38% — that's where the model lands on Vardar taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Bashkimi Clean Sheet 10%
Vardar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bashkimi Vardar
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 18
Draws 8 5
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.27 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.83 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 1. MFL
Bashkimi vs Vardar
3:3
May 2, 2026 1. MFL
Bashkimi vs Vardar
0:2
Feb 21, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Bashkimi
1:0
Sep 29, 2025 1. MFL
Bashkimi vs Vardar
0:0
Apr 13, 2008 1. MFL
Bashkimi vs Vardar
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bashkimi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Vardar Compare

Top Goalscorer Zakaric G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nikolov B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bashkimi 10 / 100
Vardar 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bashkimi Vardar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vardar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bashkimi found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Bashkimi remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Vardar conceded in 55% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Bashkimi VS Vardar
1.38 Goals Scored 2
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bashkimi

(Home)
27 Sept
Drita
1 : 1
Bashkimi
18 Sept
Shkendija Tetovo
4 : 1
Bashkimi
12 Sept
Bashkimi
3 : 3
Vardar
09 Sept
BVK Konjare
0 : 5
Bashkimi
05 Sept
FK Skopje
1 : 2
Bashkimi
Page 1 of 6

Vardar

(Away)
19 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Shkendija Haracine
12 Sept
Bashkimi
3 : 3
Vardar
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Arsimi
03 Sept
Ovce Pole
0 : 5
Vardar
31 Aug
Tikves
1 : 1
Vardar
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vardar 33 26 5 2 80:21 83
2 Shkendija Tetovo 33 23 5 5 67:30 74
3 Struga 33 19 5 9 68:28 62
4 Sileks 33 16 5 12 59:36 53
5 Tikves 33 14 6 13 59:47 48
6 Arsimi 33 13 7 13 50:53 46
7 Bashkimi 33 11 9 13 40:54 42
8 Pelister 33 10 10 13 41:42 40
9 Brera Strumica 33 10 10 13 46:56 40
10 Makedonija GP 33 9 7 17 42:57 34
11 Rabotnicki 33 9 6 18 45:58 33
12 Shkupi 33 0 1 32 15:130 1
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL (Main)