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Bastia vs Amiens SC

France France

Ligue 3 Stade Armand Cesari, Bastia
Sat, Sep 5, 2026
VS
12:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bastia host Amiens SC in the Ligue 3. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Bastia have averaged 1 scored and 1.21 conceded recently, against Amiens SC's 1.3 scored and 1.67 conceded. Head-to-head, Bastia have won 2 to Amiens SC's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Apr 3, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.27 vs 1.75, favoring Bastia. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Bastia
30%
Draws
41%
Amiens SC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Amiens SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Amiens SC come out ahead of Bastia on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Ligue 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Bastia Clean Sheet 12%
Amiens SC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bastia Amiens SC
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 7 8
Draws 11 6
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Amiens SC
1:1
Sep 12, 2025 Ligue 2
Amiens SC vs Bastia
0:0
Aug 2, 2025 Club Friendly
Bastia vs Amiens SC
4:2
Jan 17, 2025 Ligue 2
Amiens SC vs Bastia
1:0
Aug 23, 2024 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Amiens SC
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bastia 30 / 100
Amiens SC 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bastia Amiens SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Amiens SC let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Bastia found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Bastia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Bastia VS Amiens SC
1.29 Goals Scored 1.63
1.86 Goals Conceded 1.25
71% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 50%
43% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bastia

(Home)
20 Aug
Bastia
2 : 3
Versailles
14 Aug
Aubagne FC
0 : 1
Bastia
07 Aug
Bastia
0 : 2
Le Puy-en-Velay
31 Jul
Bastia
2 : 2
Annecy
24 Jul
Aubagne FC
1 : 1
Bastia
Page 1 of 6

Amiens SC

(Away)
20 Aug
Le Puy-en-Velay
1 : 0
Amiens SC
14 Aug
Amiens SC
0 : 1
La Roche Vendee
07 Aug
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 0
Amiens SC
31 Jul
Amiens SC
3 : 1
Red Star
31 Jul
Amiens SC
2 : 0
Chambly
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thionville 3 3 0 0 9:3 9
2 Rouen 3 2 1 0 5:1 7
3 La Roche Vendee 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
4 Caen 3 2 0 1 8:4 6
5 Orleans 3 2 0 1 5:2 6
6 Le Puy-en-Velay 3 2 0 1 3:1 6
7 Versailles 3 2 0 1 6:5 6
8 Paris 13 Atletico 3 2 0 1 3:3 6
9 Concarneau 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
10 Cannes 3 0 3 0 2:2 3
11 Villefranche 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
12 Bastia 3 1 0 2 3:5 3
13 Valenciennes 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
14 Bourg Peronnas 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
15 Fleury-Merogis 3 0 2 1 1:3 2
16 Amiens SC 3 0 1 2 0:2 1
17 Quevilly 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
18 Aubagne FC 3 0 0 3 0:5 0
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)