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Stadium Background

Bastia vs Martigues

France France

Ligue 2 2024/2025 Stade Armand Cesari, Bastia
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Ducrocq T.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Guevara J. In: Guidi D.
Out: Guevara J.
61'
Sub
Robin M. In: Siby M.
Out: Robin M.

AI Match Summary

Bastia in this Ligue 2 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bastia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Bastia
35%
Draws
46%
Martigues
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Martigues

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Martigues have won more games recently than Bastia.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Ligue 2 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 13%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Bastia Clean Sheet 20%
Martigues Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bastia Martigues
Matches Played 29 25
Wins 7 9
Draws 11 3
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 0.9 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2025 Club Friendly
Bastia vs Martigues
0:0
Mar 7, 2025 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Martigues
1:0
Oct 11, 2024 Club Friendly
Martigues vs Bastia
1:1
Aug 30, 2024 Ligue 2
Martigues vs Bastia
0:1
Jul 23, 2022 Club Friendly
Bastia vs Martigues
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bastia 32 / 100
Martigues 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bastia Martigues

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Martigues's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 25 matches.

Bastia scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Bastia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bastia VS -
0.38 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bastia

(Home)
07 Aug
Bastia
0 : 2
Le Puy-en-Velay
31 Jul
Bastia
2 : 2
Annecy
24 Jul
Aubagne FC
1 : 1
Bastia
10 Jul
Rodez
5 : 3
Bastia
09 May
Bastia
0 : 2
Le Mans
Page 1 of 6

Martigues

(Away)
26 Jul
Martigues
1 : 1
AC Ajaccio
10 May
Lorient
5 : 1
Martigues
02 May
Martigues
1 : 1
Paris FC
25 Apr
Guingamp
2 : 1
Martigues
18 Apr
Caen
0 : 3
Martigues
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lorient 34 22 5 7 68:31 71
2 Paris FC 34 21 6 7 55:33 69
3 Metz 34 18 11 5 64:34 65
4 Dunkerque 34 17 5 12 47:40 56
5 Guingamp 34 17 4 13 57:45 55
6 Annecy 34 14 9 11 42:43 51
7 Laval 34 14 8 12 44:38 50
8 Bastia 34 11 15 8 43:37 48
9 Grenoble 34 13 7 14 43:44 46
10 Troyes 34 13 5 16 36:34 44
11 Amiens SC 34 13 4 17 38:50 43
12 AC Ajaccio 34 12 6 16 30:42 42
13 Pau 34 10 12 12 39:53 42
14 Rodez 34 9 12 13 56:54 39
15 Red Star 34 9 11 14 37:51 38
16 Clermont 34 7 12 15 30:46 33
17 Martigues 34 9 5 20 29:56 32
18 Caen 34 5 7 22 31:58 22
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2024/2025 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2024/2025 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - National 2025/2026 (Main)