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Stadium Background

Bastia vs Orleans - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 3 Stade Armand Cesari, Bastia
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Belal L.
12'
Drame I.
27'
Raillot L.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Ligue 3 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Bastia
35%
Draws
24%
Orleans
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bastia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Bastia haven't matched Orleans's recent run of results.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Bastia taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Bastia Clean Sheet 68%
Orleans Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bastia Orleans
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 10
Draws 12 10
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 0.93 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 Ligue 3
Bastia vs Orleans
1:1
Mar 29, 2021 Ligue 3
Orleans vs Bastia
2:1
Oct 23, 2020 Ligue 3
Bastia vs Orleans
1:1
Feb 16, 2018 Ligue 2
Orleans vs Bastia
0:0
Sep 19, 2017 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Orleans
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bastia Compare

Top Goalscorer Melieres C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Orleans Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bastia 77 / 100
Orleans 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bastia Orleans

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bastia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bastia found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Orleans's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Bastia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Bastia VS Orleans
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bastia

(Home)
01 Oct
Bastia
1 : 1
Orleans
26 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 0
Bastia
17 Sept
Bastia
1 : 1
Cannes
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Bastia
05 Sept
Bastia
0 : 3
Amiens SC
Page 1 of 6

Orleans

(Away)
01 Oct
Bastia
1 : 1
Orleans
26 Sept
Orleans
0 : 0
Cannes
19 Sept
Amiens SC
2 : 0
Orleans
12 Sept
Orleans
0 : 4
Versailles
05 Sept
Le Puy-en-Velay
1 : 1
Orleans
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 9 6 3 0 15:8 21
2 Rouen 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Concarneau 9 4 4 1 12:8 16
4 Versailles 9 5 1 3 13:12 16
5 Amiens SC 9 4 3 2 12:3 15
6 Cannes 9 3 6 0 11:4 15
7 Caen 9 5 0 4 17:12 15
8 Le Puy-en-Velay 9 4 1 4 11:9 13
9 Thionville 9 3 3 3 14:14 12
10 Fleury 91 9 3 3 3 15:12 12
11 Paris 13 Atletico 9 3 3 3 7:9 12
12 Bastia 9 3 2 4 7:11 11
13 Quevilly 9 2 4 3 8:12 10
14 Orleans 9 2 3 4 7:11 9
15 Valenciennes 9 2 2 5 9:14 8
16 Aubagne FC 9 2 1 6 6:12 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 9 1 2 6 5:15 5
18 Villefranche 9 1 1 7 7:22 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)