Sport Picks
Bastia vs St Etienne
France
Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade Armand Cesari, Bastia 
Match Events
1'
1'
Zaouai A.
8'
8'
Roncaglia A.
34'
34'
Boakye A.
AI Match Summary
Bastia in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bastia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
30%
41%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: St Etienne
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to St Etienne lately — more wins on the board than Bastia.
- 50% — that's where the model lands on St Etienne taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Bastia Clean Sheet 18%
St Etienne Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bastia | St Etienne |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 14 |
| Draws | 11 | 6 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.38 | 1.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 Ligue 2
Bastia vs St Etienne
2:0
Dec 13, 2025 Ligue 2
St Etienne vs Bastia
2:2
Mar 16, 2024 Ligue 2
Bastia vs St Etienne
0:4
Dec 19, 2023 Ligue 2
St Etienne vs Bastia
3:2
Jan 31, 2023 Ligue 2
Bastia vs St Etienne
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bastia Compare
Top Goalscorer Zaouai A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Eickmayer J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
St Etienne Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bastia 23 / 100
St Etienne 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bastia St Etienne
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ETI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.40 goals.
Attacking prowess: Bastia scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.
St Etienne's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.
Bastia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Bastia VS St Etienne
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Bastia
(Home) 31 Jul
Bastia
2 : 2 Annecy
24 Jul
Aubagne FC
1 : 1 Bastia
10 Jul
Rodez
5 : 3 Bastia
09 May
Bastia
0 : 2 Le Mans
02 May
Guingamp
0 : 1 Bastia
Page 1 of 6
31 Jul
Bastia
2 : 2 Annecy
09 May
Bastia
0 : 2 Le Mans
18 Apr
Bastia
2 : 0 St Etienne
03 Apr
Bastia
1 : 1 Amiens SC
13 Mar
Bastia
0 : 1 Boulogne
Page 1 of 3
St Etienne
(Away) 01 Aug
St Etienne
4 : 3 Venezia
29 Jul
St Etienne
4 : 0 Lausanne
22 Jul
Rangers
2 : 1 St Etienne
18 Jul
Servette
1 : 0 St Etienne
11 Jul
St Etienne
2 : 2 Biel
Page 1 of 6
22 Jul
Rangers
2 : 1 St Etienne
18 Jul
Servette
1 : 0 St Etienne
29 May
Nice
4 : 1 St Etienne
02 May
Rodez
2 : 1 St Etienne
18 Apr
Bastia
2 : 0 St Etienne
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Troyes | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 60:33 | 67 |
| 2 | Le Mans | 34 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 50:31 | 62 |
| 3 | St Etienne | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 59:38 | 60 |
| 4 | Red Star | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 45:37 | 58 |
| 5 | Rodez | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 45:39 | 58 |
| 6 | Reims | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 53:35 | 56 |
| 7 | Annecy | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 49:39 | 52 |
| 8 | Montpellier | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 41:31 | 51 |
| 9 | Pau | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 48:62 | 45 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 53:45 | 43 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:49 | 40 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 33:39 | 39 |
| 13 | Clermont | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38:44 | 37 |
| 14 | Nancy | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 35:52 | 37 |
| 15 | Boulogne | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 34:49 | 36 |
| 16 | Laval | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 30:48 | 32 |
| 17 | Bastia | 34 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 23:39 | 28 |
| 18 | Amiens SC | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 37:65 | 24 |
| 19 | AC Ajaccio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)
