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BATE vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belarus Belarus

Vysshaya Liga Borisov Arena, Barysaw
BATE Logo

BATE

2 - 3
FT
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Logo

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Sub
Yatskevich V. In: Grivenev E.
Out: Yatskevich V.
45' Event
Sakuta M.
Assist: Kress E.
46'
Sub
Apanasevich K. In: Yarmolich A.
Out: Apanasevich K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Vysshaya Liga game between BATE and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
BATE
35%
Draws
49%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Arsenal Dzerzhinsk carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 16% — that's where the model lands on BATE taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
BATE Clean Sheet 68%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BATE Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 7 8
Draws 10 9
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 0.89 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
BATE vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
2:3
Jan 31, 2026 Club Friendly
BATE vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0:1
Sep 21, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
BATE vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0:0
May 2, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs BATE
0:1
Mar 8, 2025 Club Friendly
BATE vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BATE Compare

Top Goalscorer Sakuta M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Mokin M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Gorbachik V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BATE 50 / 100
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BATE Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BATE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

BATE's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: BATE stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

BATE VS Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

BATE

(Home)
04 Oct
Zenit St Petersburg
1 : 0
BATE
19 Sept
Din. Minsk
2 : 0
BATE
13 Sept
BATE
2 : 2
Naftan
07 Sept
Dynamo Brest
1 : 0
BATE
03 Sept
Isloch Minsk
2 : 0
BATE
Page 1 of 6

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

(Away)
03 Oct
FC Minsk
0 : 0
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
18 Sept
ML Vitebsk
5 : 1
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
12 Sept
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0 : 0
FK Baranovici
07 Sept
Isloch Minsk
1 : 1
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
30 Aug
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
2 : 4
Zhodino
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Isloch Minsk 22 13 6 3 37:18 45
2 ML Vitebsk 21 12 8 1 42:17 44
3 Din. Minsk 21 13 4 4 37:16 43
4 Dynamo Brest 23 12 4 7 38:23 40
5 FC Gomel 23 11 6 6 33:18 39
6 Neman 22 11 4 7 26:20 37
7 Vitebsk 23 10 6 7 28:21 36
8 FC Minsk 23 10 4 9 30:28 34
9 Zhodino 22 7 6 9 28:29 27
10 Slavia Mozyr 22 6 7 9 23:26 25
11 FK Baranovici 23 6 7 10 24:38 25
12 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 23 5 8 10 24:41 23
13 Belshina 22 5 6 11 22:36 21
14 BATE 22 3 9 10 16:27 18
15 Dnepr Mogilev 23 2 10 11 20:36 16
16 Naftan 23 3 5 15 20:54 14
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Pershaya Liga 2027 (Main)