Sport Picks

Germany

Bundesliga 2025/2026 BayArena

Match Events

14'

Finkgrafe M.

25'

Schick P.

Assist: Tella N.

45'

Tella N.

Assist: Garcia A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bayer Leverkusen host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga 2025/2026. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: Bayer Leverkusen at 2.13 goals for, 1.75 against; RB Leipzig at 2.25 for, 1.5 against. Past meetings favor Bayer Leverkusen slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 2, 2026, ending 4:1. Model xG sits at 1.81 vs 2.00, favoring Bayer Leverkusen. Over markets look the better angle than the result itself.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%

Bayer Leverkusen

17%

Draws

13%

RB Leipzig

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Bayer Leverkusen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

RB Leipzig has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Bayer Leverkusen.
Model forecasts a 70% win probability edge for Bayer Leverkusen.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Bundesliga 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Bayer Leverkusen Clean Sheet 10%

RB Leipzig Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Bayer Leverkusen	RB Leipzig
Matches Played	31	29
Wins	14	15
Draws	8	4
Losses	9	10
Goals Scored	2.13	2.25
Goals Conceded	1.75	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

Possession: 44% - 40% Cards: 2 - 3

4:1

Dec 20, 2025 Bundesliga

RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen

Possession: 59% - 47% Cards: 3 - 1

1:3

Jan 25, 2025 Bundesliga

RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen

Possession: 59% - 50% Cards: 2 - 4

2:2

Aug 31, 2024 Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

Possession: 44% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

2:3

Jan 20, 2024 Bundesliga

RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen

Possession: 59% - 42% Cards: 0 - 2

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bayer Leverkusen Compare

Top Goalscorer Schick P.

3 Goals

Assists Leader Tella N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.64

Avg xA / game 1.06

RB Leipzig Compare

Top Goalscorer Baumgartner C.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.05

Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bayer Leverkusen 65 / 100

RB Leipzig 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Bayer Leverkusen RB Leipzig

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEV Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bayer Leverkusen scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

RB Leipzig let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Bayer Leverkusen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

RB Leipzig lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bayer Leverkusen VS RB Leipzig

2.13 Goals Scored 2.25

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5

88% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 88%

38% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	34	28	5	1	122:36	89
2	Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70:34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66:47	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71:49	62
5	Hoffenheim	34	18	7	9	65:52	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68:47	59
7	Freiburg	34	13	8	13	51:57	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	11	11	12	61:65	44
9	Augsburg	34	12	7	15	45:61	43
10	Mainz	34	10	10	14	44:53	40
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44:58	39
12	B. Monchengladbach	34	9	11	14	42:53	38
13	Hamburger	34	9	11	14	40:54	38
14	1. FC Koln	34	7	11	16	49:63	32
15	Werder Bremen	34	8	8	18	37:60	32
16	Wolfsburg	34	7	8	19	45:69	29
17	Heidenheim	34	6	8	20	41:72	26
18	St. Pauli	34	6	8	20	29:60	26