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Stadium Background

BE1 NFA vs BFA Vilnius

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

BE1 NFA play BFA Vilnius in the I Lyga. It looks like a close match. Recently, BE1 NFA averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. BFA Vilnius averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. In past meetings, BE1 NFA won 3, BFA Vilnius won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 13, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for BE1 NFA and 0.88 for BFA Vilnius. This points to a BE1 NFA double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
BE1 NFA
17%
Draws
40%
BFA Vilnius
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: BE1 NFA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • BE1 NFA picked up more points recently compared to BFA Vilnius.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
BE1 NFA Clean Sheet 25%
BFA Vilnius Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BE1 NFA BFA Vilnius
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 15 16
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.59 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 I Lyga
BE1 NFA vs BFA Vilnius
3:1
Sep 26, 2025 I Lyga
BE1 NFA vs BFA Vilnius
0:0
May 24, 2025 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs BE1 NFA
3:0
Sep 14, 2024 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs BE1 NFA
0:1
Apr 26, 2024 I Lyga
BE1 NFA vs BFA Vilnius
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BE1 NFA Compare

Top Goalscorer Gudaitis T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Chyzhyk S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

BFA Vilnius Compare

Top Goalscorer Gerbutavicius J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BE1 NFA 44 / 100
BFA Vilnius 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BE1 NFA BFA Vilnius

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: BE1 NFA or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

BE1 NFA attacking → ← attacking BFA Vilnius

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

BE1 NFA scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

BFA Vilnius let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

BE1 NFA went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

BFA Vilnius lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 53
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FK Minija15131139:940
2FK Babrungas15123026:439
3BE1 NFA15102328:1532
4Neptunas1591520:1728
5Tauras Taurage1591527:1628
6Dainava Alytus1583426:1527
7Garliava1564522:1422
8BFA Vilnius1571718:2422
9FK Atmosfera1563623:1721
10Zalgiris 21553721:2518
11Jonava1545618:2017
12Transinvest 21542913:3614
13Hegelmann Litauen 215411016:3213
14Ekranas15211215:297
15FK Kauno Zalgiris 21521127:247
16Siauliai 215141013:357