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Beasain vs Lagun Onak - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
02:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Beasain host Lagun Onak in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. Little to choose between these two on current form. Lagun Onak have shipped 0.88 goals a game lately, while Beasain have conceded 1.29 and scored 1.29. Head-to-head, Beasain have won 3 to Lagun Onak's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Aug 29, 2026, ending 2:2. xG projections (1.50 - 1.31) back Lagun Onak to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Beasain
20%
Draws
51%
Lagun Onak
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lagun Onak

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lagun Onak lately — more wins on the board than Beasain.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Beasain Clean Sheet 18%
Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Beasain Lagun Onak
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 11 15
Draws 9 10
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.29 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.29 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Club Friendly
Lagun Onak vs Beasain
2:2
May 3, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Beasain vs Lagun Onak
1:0
Dec 20, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Beasain
1:1
Apr 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Beasain vs Lagun Onak
2:0
Dec 16, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Beasain
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Beasain 32 / 100
Lagun Onak 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Beasain Lagun Onak

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Beasain scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Lagun Onak conceded in 55% of 33 recent games.

Recent resilience: Beasain stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Beasain VS Lagun Onak
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Beasain

(Home)
04 Oct
Derio
2 : 0
Beasain
26 Sept
Beasain
1 : 2
SCD Durango
19 Sept
Touring KE
2 : 0
Beasain
13 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
0 : 0
Beasain
05 Sept
Beasain
2 : 0
Santurtzi
Page 1 of 7

Lagun Onak

(Away)
03 Oct
Lagun Onak
1 : 2
UD Aretxabaleta
27 Sept
Santurtzi
0 : 1
Lagun Onak
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0
San Ignacio
12 Sept
Real Sociedad C
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
05 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 1
Leioa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Derio 5 3 2 0 7:2 11
3 Pasaia 5 3 1 1 7:6 10
4 Leioa 5 2 3 0 12:6 9
5 Real Sociedad C 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
6 Touring KE 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
7 UD Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
8 Alaves C 5 2 1 2 11:6 7
9 Lagun Onak 5 2 1 2 4:5 7
10 SCD Durango 5 1 3 1 8:8 6
11 SD Erandio 5 2 0 3 6:6 6
12 San Ignacio 5 1 2 2 8:7 5
13 Eibar C 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
14 Real Union B 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
15 Sodupe 5 1 2 2 4:9 5
16 Beasain 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
17 Santurtzi 5 1 0 4 2:7 3
18 Amurrio Club 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)