Sport Picks

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Bela Vista-TO vs Capital FC

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bela Vista-TO play Capital FC in the Tocantinense 2025. Capital FC are favorites here. Recently, Bela Vista-TO averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. Capital FC averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. In past meetings, Bela Vista-TO won 1, Capital FC won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 1, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Bela Vista-TO and 1.00 for Capital FC. This points to a Capital FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Bela Vista-TO
25%
Draws
60%
Capital FC
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Capital FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Bela Vista-TO picked up more points recently compared to Capital FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Bela Vista-TO Clean Sheet 23%
Capital FC Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bela Vista-TO Capital FC
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 12 12
Draws 7 5
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.61 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Tocantinense
Bela Vista-TO vs Capital FC
1:0
Mar 1, 2025 Tocantinense
Bela Vista-TO vs Capital FC
0:2
Feb 25, 2024 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Bela Vista-TO
2:0
Mar 25, 2023 Tocantinense
Bela Vista-TO vs Capital FC
1:2
Mar 18, 2023 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Bela Vista-TO
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bela Vista-TO Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Capital FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Vitinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bela Vista-TO 18 / 100
Capital FC 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bela Vista-TO Capital FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Capital FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Capital FC & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bela Vista-TO attacking → ← attacking Capital FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bela Vista-TO scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Capital FC let in goals in 76% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Bela Vista-TO went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Capital FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 41
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tocantinopolis751115:616
2Capital FC75028:415
3Araguaina73139:710
4Gurupi72419:510
5Uniao Carmolandense73137:127
6Bela Vista-TO72147:117
7Batalhao713312:116
8Tocantins71154:154