Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bela Vista-TO vs Guarai SC

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bela Vista-TO play Guarai SC in the Tocantinense. Bela Vista-TO are favorites here. Recently, Bela Vista-TO averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. Guarai SC averaged 1.97 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Bela Vista-TO won 1, Guarai SC won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 18, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Bela Vista-TO and 1.00 for Guarai SC. This points to a Bela Vista-TO double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Bela Vista-TO
25%
Draws
15%
Guarai SC
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Bela Vista-TO

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Bela Vista-TO picked up more points recently compared to Guarai SC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Bela Vista-TO Clean Sheet 23%
Guarai SC Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 81%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bela Vista-TO Guarai SC
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.61 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Tocantinense
Bela Vista-TO vs Guarai SC
1:1
Nov 9, 2024 Tocantinense 2
Bela Vista-TO vs Guarai SC
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bela Vista-TO Compare

Top Goalscorer Assis D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Guarai SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bela Vista-TO 59 / 100
Guarai SC 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bela Vista-TO Guarai SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bela Vista-TO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Bela Vista-TO & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bela Vista-TO attacking → ← attacking Guarai SC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bela Vista-TO scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Guarai SC let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Bela Vista-TO went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Guarai SC lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 40
1.14 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tocantinopolis761010:119
2Uniao Carmolandense741212:513
3Gurupi741210:613
4Capital FC723210:99
5Araguaina72237:78
6Bela Vista-TO72238:148
7Palmas71244:105
8Guarai SC70253:122