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Belarus vs San Marino - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest
Belarus Logo

Belarus

4 - 0
FT
San Marino Logo

San Marino

Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Nanni N.
42'
Golinucci A.
46'
Sub
Golinucci A. In: Mularoni M.
Out: Golinucci A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Belarus in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Belarus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Belarus
20%
Draws
0%
San Marino
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Belarus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • San Marino haven't matched Belarus's recent run of results.
  • Belarus are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Belarus have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Belarus Clean Sheet 20%
San Marino Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Belarus San Marino
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 2
Draws 9 3
Losses 10 25
Goals Scored 1.18 0.53
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Belarus vs San Marino
4:0
Nov 18, 2018 UEFA Nations League
San Marino vs Belarus
0:2
Sep 8, 2018 UEFA Nations League
Belarus vs San Marino
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Belarus Compare

Top Goalscorer Kontsevoy A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Shumansky A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

San Marino Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belarus 85 / 100
San Marino 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Belarus San Marino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belarus Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marino's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: San Marino has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Recent resilience: Belarus stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Belarus VS San Marino
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 3
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Belarus

(Home)
06 Oct
Belarus
1 : 0
Finland
03 Oct
Belarus
4 : 0
San Marino
29 Sept
Finland
0 : 0
Belarus
26 Sept
Albania
2 : 0
Belarus
09 Jun
Belarus
2 : 2
Burkina Faso
Page 1 of 6

San Marino

(Away)
06 Oct
Albania
2 : 1
San Marino
03 Oct
Belarus
4 : 0
San Marino
29 Sept
San Marino
0 : 3
Albania
26 Sept
San Marino
0 : 7
Finland
09 Jun
Azerbaijan
2 : 1
San Marino
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albania 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
2 Belarus 4 2 1 1 5:2 7
3 Finland 4 2 1 1 9:2 7
4 San Marino 4 0 0 4 1:16 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montenegro 4 3 1 0 7:4 10
2 Cyprus 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Armenia 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
4 Latvia 4 0 1 3 2:6 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Slovakia 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
2 Faroe Islands 4 0 4 0 5:5 4
3 Moldova 4 1 1 2 3:8 4
4 Kazakhstan 4 0 2 2 5:7 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iceland 4 2 2 0 7:1 8
2 Estonia 4 1 3 0 2:1 6
3 Bulgaria 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
4 Luxembourg 4 1 0 3 2:7 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)