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Belenense vs Santos PA - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paraense A3 2025
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Belenense advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Belenense
30%
Draws
23%
Santos PA
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Belenense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Belenense come out ahead of Santos PA on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Belenense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Belenense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Belenense, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Belenense Clean Sheet 12%
Santos PA Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Belenense Santos PA
Matches Played 17 21
Wins 9 5
Draws 1 6
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.82 1
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2025 Paraense A3
Belenense vs Santos PA
2:1
Nov 11, 2025 Paraense A3
Santos PA vs Belenense
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belenense 83 / 100
Santos PA 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Belenense Santos PA

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belenense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Belenense scored in 71% of their last 17 outings.

Santos PA let in goals in 76% of their last 21 matches.

Belenense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Belenense VS Santos PA
2.63 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Belenense

(Home)
02 Oct
Gaviao
2 : 0
Belenense
28 Sept
Belenense
1 : 0
Gaviao
20 Sept
CA Vila Rica
2 : 2
Belenense
16 Sept
Belenense
3 : 2
Sport Belem
11 Sept
Belenense
8 : 0
CA Vila Rica
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Santos PA

(Away)
03 Jun
Urumajo
3 : 0
Santos PA
30 May
Santos PA
0 : 1
Urumajo
23 May
Canaa
0 : 0
Santos PA
19 May
Santos PA
3 : 1
Caete
09 May
Santos PA
2 : 2
Canaa
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Gaviao 2
Sport Belem 1
Tesla 1
Atletico Paraense 12
Paraense SC 3
Santos PA 4
Venus 2
Belenense 3
Semi-finals
Gaviao 2
Atletico Paraense 5
Santos PA 5
Belenense 4
Final
Atletico Paraense 1
Santos PA 0