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Belford Roxo vs Barra Mansa

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2025
Belford Roxo Logo

Belford Roxo

4 - 1
FT
Barra Mansa Logo

Barra Mansa

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Hudson
24' Event
Thon
33' Event
Yan Suhet
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B2 2025 game between Belford Roxo and Barra Mansa finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Belford Roxo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Belford Roxo
35%
Draws
22%
Barra Mansa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Belford Roxo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Barra Mansa have managed 0.96 goals a game lately — Belford Roxo are scoring more at 1.36.
  • Model gives Belford Roxo a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Belford Roxo Clean Sheet 68%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Belford Roxo Barra Mansa
Matches Played 25 26
Wins 6 6
Draws 11 8
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.36 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.21 0.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2025 Carioca B2
Belford Roxo vs Barra Mansa
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Belford Roxo Compare

Top Goalscorer Thon
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hudson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.6

Barra Mansa Compare

Top Goalscorer Dias de Andrade J. P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belford Roxo 50 / 100
Barra Mansa 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Belford Roxo Barra Mansa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belford Roxo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Belford Roxo scored in 72% of their last 25 outings.

Defensive concern: Barra Mansa conceded in 65% of 26 recent games.

Belford Roxo has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Belford Roxo VS Barra Mansa
1.29 Goals Scored 0.5
0.86 Goals Conceded 1.13
57% Over 1.5 50%
57% Over 2.5 38%
43% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Belford Roxo

(Home)
27 Sept
Friburguense
2 : 2
Belford Roxo
20 Sept
Belford Roxo
1 : 2
Cardoso Moreira
13 Sept
Campos AA
2 : 2
Belford Roxo
06 Sept
Belford Roxo
0 : 0
FC Rio de Janeiro
30 Aug
Paraty
0 : 4
Belford Roxo
Page 1 of 5

Barra Mansa

(Away)
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
14 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 4
7 de Abril
06 Sept
Friburguense
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
31 Aug
Barra Mansa
2 : 2
Campos AA
23 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 2
Buzios
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Cruz RJ 8 7 1 0 14:3 22
2 Belford Roxo 8 5 1 2 17:8 16
3 Goytacaz 8 5 1 2 13:8 16
4 Macae 8 4 1 3 13:5 13
5 Serra Macaense 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
6 Paraty 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
7 7 de Abril 8 2 2 4 11:13 8
8 FC Rio de Janeiro 8 1 0 7 7:25 3
9 Barra Mansa 8 0 2 6 4:18 2
Promotion - Carioca B2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Main)