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Belgium W vs Italy W

Europe Europe

Euro Women Stade de Tourbillon, Sion
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Lenzini M.
33'
Di Guglielmo L.
44' Event
Caruso A.
Assist: Di Guglielmo L.

AI Match Summary

The Euro Women game between Belgium W and Italy W finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Italy W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Belgium W
35%
Draws
29%
Italy W
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Belgium W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Belgium W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Belgium W are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Belgium W Clean Sheet 20%
Italy W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Belgium W Italy W
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 10
Draws 5 10
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.93 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.57 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2025 Euro Women
Belgium W vs Italy W
0:1
Feb 16, 2023 Arnold Clark Cup Women
Italy W vs Belgium W
1:2
Jul 18, 2022 Euro Women
Italy W vs Belgium W
0:1
Sep 4, 2018 World Cup Women
Belgium W vs Italy W
2:1
Apr 10, 2018 World Cup Women
Italy W vs Belgium W
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Belgium W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Italy W Compare

Top Goalscorer Caruso A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belgium W 58 / 100
Italy W 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Belgium W Italy W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belgium W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Belgium W stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Belgium W found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Italy W has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Belgium W VS Italy W
3.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Belgium W

(Home)
09 Jun
Luxembourg W
0 : 7
Belgium W
05 Jun
Belgium W
6 : 0
Luxembourg W
18 Apr
Belgium W
0 : 0
Scotland W
14 Apr
Scotland W
1 : 1
Belgium W
07 Mar
Belgium W
5 : 0
Israel W
Page 1 of 6

Italy W

(Away)
09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2
Italy W
05 Jun
Italy W
3 : 0
Serbia W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0
Italy W
14 Apr
Serbia W
0 : 6
Italy W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1
Denmark W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Norway W 3 3 0 0 8:5 9
2 Switzerland W 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
3 Finland W 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
4 Iceland W 3 0 0 3 3:7 0
Promotion - Euro Women (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain W 3 3 0 0 14:3 9
2 Italy W 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
3 Belgium W 3 1 0 2 4:8 3
4 Portugal W 3 0 1 2 2:8 1
Promotion - Euro Women (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sweden W 3 3 0 0 8:1 9
2 Germany W 3 2 0 1 5:5 6
3 Poland W 3 1 0 2 3:7 3
4 Denmark W 3 0 0 3 3:6 0
Promotion - Euro Women (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France W 3 3 0 0 11:4 9
2 England W 3 2 0 1 11:3 6
3 Netherlands W 3 1 0 2 5:9 3
4 Wales W 3 0 0 3 2:13 0
Promotion - Euro Women (Play Offs)