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Belper Town vs Newcastle Town

England England

FA Trophy 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Belper Town advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Belper Town
15%
Draws
42%
Newcastle Town
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Belper Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Newcastle Town haven't matched Belper Town's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Belper Town's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Belper Town have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Belper Town, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Belper Town have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Belper Town Clean Sheet 20%
Newcastle Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Belper Town Newcastle Town
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 6
Draws 4 6
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 1.57 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.68 2.28
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2025 FA Trophy
Belper Town vs Newcastle Town
2:1
Sep 9, 2023 FA Trophy
Belper Town vs Newcastle Town
2:0
Oct 17, 2020 FA Trophy
Newcastle Town vs Belper Town
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Belper Town 76 / 100
Newcastle Town 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Belper Town Newcastle Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belper Town Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Belper Town's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Newcastle Town's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Newcastle Town has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Belper Town VS Newcastle Town
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Belper Town

(Home)
05 Sept
Belper Town
0 : 3
Evesham
29 Aug
Wellingborough
2 : 1
Belper Town
20 Sept
Rugby
3 : 2
Belper Town
06 Sept
Belper Town
2 : 1
Newcastle Town
26 Jul
Belper Town
1 : 4
Matlock
Page 1 of 6

Newcastle Town

(Away)
19 Sept
Anstey Nomads
2 : 1
Newcastle Town
05 Sept
Cleethorpes
1 : 2
Newcastle Town
29 Aug
Newcastle Town
0 : 3
Bourne
06 Sept
Belper Town
2 : 1
Newcastle Town
15 Jul
Newcastle Town
0 : 3
Macclesfield
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Hyde -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Warrington Town -
Ashton United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Congleton Town 3
Vauxhall 1
Avro 1
Clitheroe 3
Bootle 2
Witton Albion 3
Dunston 4
Brighouse Town 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Warrington Rylands -
Workington -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
United of Manchester -
Stockton -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stalybridge 2
Trafford 0
Pontefract Collieries 0
Lower Breck 2
Silsden 1
Atherton Collieries 0
Ossett United 1
Nantwich 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stocksbridge -
Runcorn Linnets 2
Garforth 1
Wythenshawe Town 1
Bury FC 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Morpeth -
Widnes FC -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bamber Bridge -
Bridlington Town 1
Mossley AFC 0
North Ferriby FC 1
Blyth Spartans 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Guiseley -
Bradford PA 2
Redcar Athletic 1
Consett 4
Hallam 0
Heaton Stannington 2
AFC Emley 0
Newton Aycliffe 3
Blyth Town 0
Whitby -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Hebburn Town -
Prescot Cables -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Lancaster -
Evesham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ilkeston -
Gainsborough -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Shifnal Town 1
Chasetown 0
Long Eaton 2
Carlton Town 3
Barwell -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bromsgrove -
Sporting Club Inkberrow FC 1
Neots 0
Stafford 1
Boldmere St Michaels 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stratford -
Rushall -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Spalding United -
Bedworth United 1
Darlaston Town (1874) 0
Shepshed 0
Anstey Nomads 4
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stourbridge -
Quorn -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Lichfield City 1
Corby 2
Sutton Coldfield Town 3
Kidsgrove Athletic 2
Real Bedford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stamford -
Coleshill Town 1
Sporting Khalsa 0
Bourne 0
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2
Coventry Sphinx 0
Lincoln Utd. 2
Malvern Town 5
Loughborough Students 1
Halesowen -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Leek Town -
St Ives Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kettering -
Worcester -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Rugby 4
Racing Club Warwick 1
Belper Town 2
Newcastle Town 1
Matlock 3
Grimsby Borough 0
Mickleover 2
Basford Utd. 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Alvechurch -
Harborough -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Hednesford -
Cleethorpes -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Redditch -
Stanway Rovers 4
Aylesbury United 0
Stotfold 0
Mildenhall 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Uxbridge -
Royston Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Welling -
Hanwell Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grays 2
Milton Keynes Irish 1
Hertford Town 1
Felixstowe & Walton 3
Westfield 4
Margate 2
Bognor Regis 3
Sevenoaks 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentwood -
Leatherhead 4
Raynes Park Vale 0
Kingstonian 1
Merstham 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ramsgate -
Aveley -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
St. Albans -
Carshalton -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cheshunt -
South Park 1
Broadbridge Heath 2
Bedfont Sports 1
Horndean 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Billericay -
Ware 1
Hadley 5
Ascot United 2
Three Bridges 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Dartford -
Harrow Borough 1
Eastbourne Town 0
Jersey Bulls 3
Hastings 1
Bowers & Pitsea 0
Cambridge City 3
FC Witham Town 3
Newmarket 2
Lewes -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Leiston -
Cray Valley -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Berkhamsted Town -
Sudbury -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bury Town -
Chertsey Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Takeley 0
Welwyn Garden 2
London Lions 0
Tilbury 3
Burgess Hill -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Potters -
Stortford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cray Wanderers -
Wingate & Finchley -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
East Grinstead Town 4
Binfield 3
VCD Athletic 1
Rayners Lane 0
Chatham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Needham Market -
Erith Town 1
Deal Town 2
Herne Bay 0
Ashford United 3
Concord Rangers 2
Biggleswade FC 3
Biggleswade Town 1
Hitchin 3
Hayes & Yeading 1
Metropolitan Police 0
Southall FC 1
Whyteleafe 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Walton & Hersham -
Hassocks 1
Crowborough 3
Sittingbourne 2
Faversham 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Hashtag -
Redbridge 1
Waltham Abbey 4
Lowestoft 2
Leverstock Green 0
Walthamstow FC 3
Dowham Town FC 2
Brightlingsea 0
Leighton Town 3
Whitehawk -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Canvey Island -
Dulwich Hamlet -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Northwood 0
Beckenham Town 1
Littlehampton 1
Hendon 2
Enfield FC 1
Wroxham 0
Maldon & Tiptree 0
AFC Dunstable 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Folkestone -
Bracknell Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Hungerford -
Basingstoke -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bristol Manor Farm 0
Shaftesbury Town 2
Brixham 0
Falmouth Town 4
Hartpury University 2
Didcot 1
Portishead Town 4
Melksham 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gloucester City -
Plymouth Parkway -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gosport Borough -
Dorchester -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Exmouth Town 1
Swindon Supermarine 2
Bideford 3
Mousehole 1
Moneyfields 2
Thame United 3
Winchester City 2
Frome Town 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Banbury -
Fareham 4
Beaconsfield Town 1
Willand Rovers 1
Bishops Cleeve 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Sholing -
Yate -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Poole Town -
Portchester 1
Flackwell Heath 0
Tavistock 2
Larkhall 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Taunton Town -
Chichester City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
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TBD -
TBD -
Farnham -
Havant & Waterlooville -
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TBD -
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TBD -
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Tiverton -
Wimborne -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Weymouth -
Semi-finals
Hyde -
TBD -
TBD -
Warrington Town -
Ashton United -
TBD -
FC Congleton Town 1
Clitheroe 3
Witton Albion 0
Dunston 1
TBD -
Warrington Rylands -
Workington -
TBD -
TBD -
United of Manchester -
Stockton -
TBD -
Stalybridge 0
Lower Breck 3
Silsden 3
Nantwich 0
TBD -
Stocksbridge -
Runcorn Linnets 7
Bury FC 0
TBD -
Morpeth -
Widnes FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Bamber Bridge -
Bridlington Town 2
North Ferriby FC 0
TBD -
Guiseley -
Bradford PA 2
Consett 0
Heaton Stannington 4
Newton Aycliffe 0
Whitby -
TBD -
TBD -
Hebburn Town -
Prescot Cables -
TBD -
TBD -
Lancaster -
Evesham -
TBD -
TBD -
Ilkeston -
Gainsborough -
TBD -
Shifnal Town 2
Carlton Town 1
Barwell -
TBD -
TBD -
Bromsgrove -
Sporting Club Inkberrow FC 4
Stafford 3
TBD -
Stratford -
Rushall -
TBD -
TBD -
Spalding United -
Bedworth United 0
Anstey Nomads 3
TBD -
Stourbridge -
Quorn -
TBD -
Corby 3
Sutton Coldfield Town 0
Real Bedford -
TBD -
TBD -
Stamford -
Coleshill Town 3
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 4
Lincoln Utd. 0
Malvern Town 2
Halesowen -
TBD -
TBD -
Leek Town -
St Ives Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Kettering -
Worcester -
TBD -
Rugby 3
Belper Town 2
Matlock 1
Basford Utd. 2
TBD -
Alvechurch -
Harborough -
TBD -
TBD -
Hednesford -
Cleethorpes -
TBD -
TBD -
Redditch -
Stanway Rovers 3
Mildenhall 0
TBD -
Uxbridge -
Royston Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Welling -
Hanwell Town -
TBD -
Grays 2
Felixstowe & Walton 0
Westfield 2
Bognor Regis 1
TBD -
Brentwood -
Leatherhead 2
Kingstonian 0
TBD -
Ramsgate -
Aveley -
TBD -
TBD -
St. Albans -
Carshalton -
TBD -
TBD -
Cheshunt -
Broadbridge Heath 2
Bedfont Sports 1
TBD -
Billericay -
Hadley 3
Ascot United 2
TBD -
Dartford -
Harrow Borough 4
Jersey Bulls 0
Cambridge City 3
FC Witham Town 4
Lewes -
TBD -
TBD -
Leiston -
Cray Valley -
TBD -
TBD -
Berkhamsted Town -
Sudbury -
TBD -
TBD -
Bury Town -
Chertsey Town -
TBD -
Welwyn Garden 2
Tilbury 3
Burgess Hill -
TBD -
TBD -
Potters -
Stortford -
TBD -
TBD -
Cray Wanderers -
Wingate & Finchley -
TBD -
East Grinstead Town 1
VCD Athletic 2
Chatham -
TBD -
TBD -
Needham Market -
Deal Town 2
Ashford United 3
Biggleswade FC 3
Hitchin 1
Hayes & Yeading 5
Southall FC 1
TBD -
Walton & Hersham -
Crowborough 1
Sittingbourne 6
TBD -
Hashtag -
Waltham Abbey 4
Lowestoft 1
Walthamstow FC 5
Leighton Town 3
Whitehawk -
TBD -
TBD -
Canvey Island -
Dulwich Hamlet -
TBD -
Beckenham Town 2
Hendon 5
Enfield FC 1
AFC Dunstable 3
TBD -
Folkestone -
Bracknell Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Hungerford -
Basingstoke -
TBD -
Shaftesbury Town 3
Falmouth Town 2
Hartpury University 4
Portishead Town 2
TBD -
Gloucester City -
Plymouth Parkway -
TBD -
TBD -
Gosport Borough -
Dorchester -
TBD -
Swindon Supermarine 1
Bideford 2
Thame United 3
Winchester City 1
TBD -
Banbury -
Fareham 2
Bishops Cleeve 4
TBD -
Sholing -
Yate -
TBD -
TBD -
Poole Town -
Portchester 3
Tavistock 0
TBD -
Taunton Town -
Chichester City -
TBD -
TBD -
Farnham -
Havant & Waterlooville -
TBD -
TBD -
Tiverton -
Wimborne -
TBD -
TBD -
Weymouth -
Final
Hyde 1
Warrington Town 0
Ashton United 1
Clitheroe 2
Dunston 2
Warrington Rylands 1
Workington 0
United of Manchester 2
Stockton 2
Lower Breck 0
Silsden 1
Stocksbridge 2
Runcorn Linnets 1
Morpeth 2
Widnes FC 0
Bamber Bridge 3
Bridlington Town 2
Guiseley 4
Bradford PA 2
Heaton Stannington 1
Whitby 1
Hebburn Town 2
Prescot Cables 2
Lancaster 0
Evesham 0
Ilkeston 2
Gainsborough 3
Shifnal Town 2
Barwell 0
Bromsgrove 3
Sporting Club Inkberrow FC 1
Stratford 2
Rushall 0
Spalding United 2
Anstey Nomads 3
Stourbridge 2
Quorn 2
Corby 3
Real Bedford 3
Stamford 1
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 3
Malvern Town 1
Halesowen 1
Leek Town 2
St Ives Town 1
Kettering 0
Worcester 3
Rugby 2
Basford Utd. 0
Alvechurch 1
Harborough 2
Hednesford 0
Cleethorpes 0
Redditch 1
Stanway Rovers 1
Uxbridge 0
Royston Town 0
Welling 3
Hanwell Town 2
Grays 1
Westfield 1
Brentwood 2
Leatherhead 4
Ramsgate 1
Aveley 0
St. Albans 2
Carshalton 1
Cheshunt 2
Broadbridge Heath 1
Billericay 3
Hadley 2
Dartford 1
Harrow Borough 3
FC Witham Town 1
Lewes 1
Leiston 2
Cray Valley 1
Berkhamsted Town 0
Sudbury 4
Bury Town 0
Chertsey Town 1
Tilbury 2
Burgess Hill 2
Potters 1
Stortford 4
Cray Wanderers 0
Wingate & Finchley 4
VCD Athletic 1
Chatham 1
Needham Market 0
Ashford United 4
Biggleswade FC 3
Hayes & Yeading 0
Walton & Hersham 1
Sittingbourne 1
Hashtag 0
Waltham Abbey 6
Walthamstow FC 0
Whitehawk 0
Canvey Island 2
Dulwich Hamlet 0
Hendon 1
AFC Dunstable 1
Folkestone 3
Bracknell Town 6
Hungerford 3
Basingstoke 2
Shaftesbury Town 1
Hartpury University 0
Gloucester City 1
Plymouth Parkway 3
Gosport Borough 2
Dorchester 4
Bideford 0
Thame United 0
Banbury 2
Bishops Cleeve 2
Sholing 1
Yate 1
Poole Town 2
Portchester 2
Taunton Town 1
Chichester City 2
Farnham 4
Havant & Waterlooville 4
Tiverton 2
Wimborne 2
Weymouth 0