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Bembibre vs Becerril - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Gomez A.
18' Event
Contreras O.
18' Event
Martin D.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 game between Bembibre and Becerril finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bembibre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Bembibre
20%
Draws
33%
Becerril
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bembibre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bembibre come out ahead of Becerril on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Bembibre taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Bembibre Clean Sheet 68%
Becerril Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bembibre Becerril
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 6
Draws 11 7
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1.13 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.66 1.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Bembibre vs Becerril
4:1
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Becerril vs Bembibre
2:1
May 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Becerril vs Bembibre
1:0
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Bembibre vs Becerril
2:1
May 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Becerril vs Bembibre
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bembibre Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Contreras O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Becerril Compare

Top Goalscorer Martin D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.43
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bembibre 86 / 100
Becerril 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bembibre Becerril

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bembibre Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Becerril has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Bembibre scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Bembibre has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bembibre VS Becerril
1.75 Goals Scored 1.14
2 Goals Conceded 1.57
88% Over 1.5 86%
75% Over 2.5 43%
75% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Bembibre

(Home)
04 Oct
Bembibre
2 : 0
La Virgen
27 Sept
Guijuelo
1 : 2
Bembibre
20 Sept
Bembibre
0 : 2
Mansilles
13 Sept
Bembibre
1 : 1
Mirandes B
05 Sept
Palencia CA
0 : 2
Bembibre
Page 1 of 6

Becerril

(Away)
10 May
Becerril
2 : 0
Arandina
02 May
Bembibre
4 : 1
Becerril
26 Apr
Becerril
2 : 2
Santa Marta Tormes
18 Apr
La Virgen
0 : 1
Becerril
12 Apr
Becerril
0 : 2
Mansilles
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Tordesillas 34 24 6 4 62:24 78
2 Guijuelo 34 21 7 6 54:26 70
3 Palencia CA 34 21 5 8 48:24 68
4 Palencia CF 34 20 4 10 59:39 64
5 Santa Marta Tormes 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
6 Mansilles 34 15 12 7 31:27 57
7 Almazan 34 12 12 10 49:38 48
8 Mirandes B 34 13 8 13 43:35 47
9 La Virgen 34 12 8 14 31:37 44
10 Villaralbo 34 11 9 14 29:37 42
11 Leonesa B 34 12 6 16 38:43 42
12 Arandina 34 9 10 15 32:46 37
13 Colegios Diocesanos 34 10 6 18 33:54 36
14 Bembibre 34 8 10 16 38:52 34
15 Unionistas de Salamanca B 34 6 13 15 32:43 31
16 CD Mojados 34 7 10 17 28:55 31
17 Becerril 34 7 8 19 41:60 29
18 Numancia B 34 6 6 22 26:56 24
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 (Play Offs)