Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bembibre vs Palencia CF

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Vallecillo D.
31' Event
Vargas A.
33' Event
Mongil V.

AI Match Summary

Palencia CF in this Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Palencia CF.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Bembibre
35%
Draws
35%
Palencia CF
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Palencia CF lately — more wins on the board than Bembibre.
  • Model gives Bembibre a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Palencia CF have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Bembibre Clean Sheet 68%
Palencia CF Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bembibre Palencia CF
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 6 16
Draws 10 4
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.97 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CF vs Bembibre
4:1
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Bembibre vs Palencia CF
1:4
Jan 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Bembibre vs Palencia CF
0:3
Sep 8, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CF vs Bembibre
1:1
Mar 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CF vs Bembibre
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bembibre Compare

Top Goalscorer Vargas A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Palencia CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Vallecillo D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mongil V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bembibre 51 / 100
Palencia CF 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bembibre Palencia CF

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Bembibre scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Palencia CF let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Bembibre stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bembibre VS Palencia CF
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bembibre

(Home)
29 Aug
Bembibre
0 : 0
La Virgen
10 May
Palencia CF
4 : 1
Bembibre
02 May
Bembibre
4 : 1
Becerril
26 Apr
Arandina
3 : 3
Bembibre
18 Apr
Mirandes B
2 : 2
Bembibre
Page 1 of 6

Palencia CF

(Away)
29 Aug
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1
Palencia CF
08 Aug
Gijon B
1 : 1
Palencia CF
07 Jun
Guijuelo
1 : 2
Palencia CF
31 May
Palencia CF
2 : 3
Guijuelo
23 May
Palencia CA
1 : 0
Palencia CF
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Tordesillas 34 24 6 4 62:24 78
2 Guijuelo 34 21 7 6 54:26 70
3 Palencia CA 34 21 5 8 48:24 68
4 Palencia CF 34 20 4 10 59:39 64
5 Santa Marta Tormes 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
6 Mansilles 34 15 12 7 31:27 57
7 Almazan 34 12 12 10 49:38 48
8 Mirandes B 34 13 8 13 43:35 47
9 La Virgen 34 12 8 14 31:37 44
10 Villaralbo 34 11 9 14 29:37 42
11 Leonesa B 34 12 6 16 38:43 42
12 Arandina 34 9 10 15 32:46 37
13 Colegios Diocesanos 34 10 6 18 33:54 36
14 Bembibre 34 8 10 16 38:52 34
15 Unionistas de Salamanca B 34 6 13 15 32:43 31
16 CD Mojados 34 7 10 17 28:55 31
17 Becerril 34 7 8 19 41:60 29
18 Numancia B 34 6 6 22 26:56 24
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 (Play Offs)