Sport Picks
Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen
Europe
Champions League 2025/2026 Estádio da Luz, Lisbon 
Match Events
41'
41'
Maza I.
55'
55'
Tapsoba E.
57'
57'
Sub
Kofane C. In: Schick P.
Out: Kofane C.
AI Match Summary
The Champions League 2025/2026 game between Benfica and Bayer Leverkusen finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bayer Leverkusen.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Benfica
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Benfica carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Benfica's way, sitting at 50%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Benfica Clean Sheet 15%
Bayer Leverkusen Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Benfica | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 20 | 14 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 3 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 2.72 | 2.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 5, 2025 Champions League
Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen
0:1
Dec 9, 2014 Champions League
Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen
0:0
Oct 1, 2014 Champions League
Bayer Leverkusen vs Benfica
3:1
Feb 21, 2013 Europa League
Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen
2:1
Feb 14, 2013 Europa League
Bayer Leverkusen vs Benfica
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Benfica Compare
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Bayer Leverkusen Compare
Top Goalscorer Schick P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Benfica 48 / 100
Bayer Leverkusen 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Benfica Bayer Leverkusen
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Benfica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Benfica scored in 100% of their last 29 outings.
Benfica went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Bayer Leverkusen conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Benfica VS Bayer Leverkusen
3.13 Goals Scored 2.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Benfica
(Home) 16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2 Benfica
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3 Benfica
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1 Estoril
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1 Estoril
20 Aug
Benfica
3 : 1 Aarhus
09 Aug
Benfica
2 : 2 Academico Viseu
06 Aug
Benfica
6 : 1 Hearts
Page 1 of 3
Bayer Leverkusen
(Away) 16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 Celje
12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0 Union Berlin
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
22 Aug
Wehen
0 : 4 Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
22 Aug
Wehen
0 : 4 Bayer Leverkusen
15 Aug
Newcastle Utd
1 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
12 Aug
Nottingham
2 : 1 Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23:4 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22:8 | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20:8 | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22:14 | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:11 | 16 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:12 | 15 |
| 10 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:7 | 15 |
| 11 | PSG | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:11 | 14 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 14 |
| 13 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 14 | Atl. Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | 13 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 17 | Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19:17 | 11 |
| 18 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | 11 |
| 19 | Club Brugge | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | 10 |
| 21 | Monaco | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:14 | 10 |
| 22 | Qarabag Agdam | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:21 | 10 |
| 23 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:12 | 9 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 26 | Pafos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:11 | 9 |
| 27 | Royale Union SG | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 28 | PSV | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 8 |
| 29 | Ath Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 8 |
| 30 | Napoli | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | 8 |
| 31 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:21 | 8 |
| 32 | Ajax | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10:21 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Prague | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5:19 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:18 | 1 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7:22 | 1 |
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
