Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Benfica vs Celtic

Europe Europe

Europa League Estádio da Luz, Lisbon
Thu, Oct 15, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Benfica host Celtic in the Europa League. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Celtic have shipped 1.31 goals a game lately, while Benfica have conceded 0.93 and scored 2.72. Past meetings favor Benfica slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 20, 2012, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 2.25 vs 1.31, favoring Benfica. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Benfica
15%
Draws
32%
Celtic
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Benfica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Celtic have managed 2.14 goals a game lately — Benfica are scoring more at 2.72.
  • Win probability leans Benfica's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Benfica Clean Sheet 18%
Celtic Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Benfica Celtic
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 20 20
Draws 6 4
Losses 3 5
Goals Scored 2.72 2.14
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 20, 2012 Champions League
Benfica vs Celtic
2:1
Sep 19, 2012 Champions League
Celtic vs Benfica
0:0
Nov 6, 2007 Champions League
Celtic vs Benfica
1:0
Oct 24, 2007 Champions League
Benfica vs Celtic
1:0
Nov 1, 2006 Champions League
Benfica vs Celtic
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Benfica 85 / 100
Celtic 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Benfica Celtic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Benfica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Benfica found the back of the net in 100% of recent matches (29 games).

Recent resilience: Benfica stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Celtic has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

Benfica VS Celtic
3.25 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Benfica

(Home)
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2
Benfica
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1
Gil Vicente
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4
Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1
Estoril
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Celtic

(Away)
17 Sept
Celtic
1 : 3
Ferencvaros
13 Sept
Rangers
3 : 0
Celtic
09 Sept
St Johnstone
0 : 1
Celtic
05 Sept
St. Mirren
1 : 2
Celtic
02 Sept
Celtic
3 : 0
Aberdeen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Juventus 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
2 Crystal Palace 1 1 0 0 4:0 3
3 Sparta Prague 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
4 Besiktas 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
5 Royale Union SG 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
6 Ferencvaros 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
7 Benfica 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
8 Bayer Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
9 OFI Crete 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
10 Bournemouth 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
11 Lyon 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
12 Torreense 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
13 Olympiacos Piraeus 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
14 Salzburg 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
15 Sunderland 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
16 Omonia 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
17 Sturm Graz 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
18 Rennes 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
19 Din. Zagreb 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
20 H. Beer Sheva 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
21 Jagiellonia 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
22 Real Sociedad 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
23 Anderlecht 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
24 Lillestrom 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
25 Celta Vigo 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
26 AZ Alkmaar 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
27 Levski Sofia 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
28 Celtic 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
29 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
30 AC Milan 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
31 Celje 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
32 Marseille 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
33 Ararat-Armenia 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
34 Plzen 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
35 Lech Poznan 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
36 Nijmegen 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)