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Benin vs Sierra Leone

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Friendly International 2023
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AI Match Summary

This Friendly International 2023 encounter between Benin and Sierra Leone promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Benin averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in recent matches. Sierra Leone shows a form average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Benin, 1 wins for Sierra Leone, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 14.10.23 ended in a 1:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.02 for Benin and 1.29 for Sierra Leone, suggesting the primary value lies in the Benin double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Benin
28%
Draws
32%
Sierra Leone
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Benin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Benin picked up more points recently compared to Sierra Leone.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.02 vs 1.29 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Benin Clean Sheet 19%
Sierra Leone Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Benin Sierra Leone
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 0.97 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.17

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

14.10.23 Friendly International
Benin vs Sierra Leone
1:1
15.06.21 Africa Cup of Nations
Sierra Leone vs Benin
1:0
17.11.19 Africa Cup of Nations
Benin vs Sierra Leone
1:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Benin

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sierra Leone

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Benin Compare

Top Goalscorer Hountondji C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Sierra Leone Compare

Top Goalscorer Buya Turay M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.46

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Benin 40 / 100
Sierra Leone 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Benin Sierra Leone

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Benin or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Benin 44%
Sierra Leone 26%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Benin 38%
Sierra Leone 34%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Benin 40%
Sierra Leone 32%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Benin 42%
Sierra Leone 30%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Benin 36%
Sierra Leone 35%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Benin 46%
Sierra Leone 37%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Benin attacking → ← attacking Sierra Leone

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Benin have found the net in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Sierra Leone have conceded at least one goal in 76% of their last 29 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.33 goals per match.

Benin remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Sierra Leone suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Friendly match context where both Benin and Sierra Leone will focus on tactical prep rather than league table pressure.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 32
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.83
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.17