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Berceo vs San Marcial - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Hache
77' Event
Saenz Esparza R.
80' Event
Tamayo S.

AI Match Summary

Berceo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 16 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Berceo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Berceo
30%
Draws
23%
San Marcial
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Berceo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • San Marcial haven't matched Berceo's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Berceo a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 16 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Berceo Clean Sheet 19%
San Marcial Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Berceo San Marcial
Matches Played 35 28
Wins 14 8
Draws 8 9
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.66 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Berceo vs San Marcial
2:1
Feb 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Berceo
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Berceo vs San Marcial
2:3
Apr 6, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Berceo vs San Marcial
0:1
Nov 16, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Berceo
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Berceo Compare

Top Goalscorer Saenz Esparza R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tamayo S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

San Marcial Compare

Top Goalscorer Hache
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Berceo 85 / 100
San Marcial 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Berceo San Marcial

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Berceo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Berceo found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (35 games).

San Marcial's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Berceo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Berceo VS San Marcial
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Berceo

(Home)
04 Oct
Pradejon
1 : 2
Berceo
27 Sept
Berceo
2 : 1
San Marcial
20 Sept
Cenicero
2 : 1
Berceo
13 Sept
Berceo
7 : 0
River Ebro
05 Sept
Yague
1 : 2
Berceo
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San Marcial

(Away)
04 Oct
San Marcial
1 : 1
River Ebro
27 Sept
Berceo
2 : 1
San Marcial
18 Sept
San Marcial
1 : 1
Comillas CF
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
San Marcial
1 : 0
Vianes
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Haro Deportivo 5 4 1 0 12:6 13
2 Berceo 5 4 0 1 14:5 12
3 CDFC La Calzada 5 4 0 1 9:4 12
4 Alfaro 5 3 1 1 9:7 10
5 Pradejon 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
6 CD Calahorra 5 3 0 2 14:7 9
7 Agoncillo 5 2 2 1 12:8 8
8 Varea 5 1 4 0 4:3 7
9 San Marcial 5 1 3 1 4:4 6
10 Yague 5 2 0 3 5:8 6
11 Cenicero 5 1 2 2 6:7 5
12 Anguiano 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Oyonesa 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
14 Comillas CF 5 1 2 2 3:5 5
15 Calasancio 5 1 2 2 7:12 5
16 River Ebro 6 1 1 4 6:15 4
17 Casalarreina CF 5 1 0 4 4:12 3
18 Vianes 5 0 1 4 5:10 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 (Play Offs)