Sport Picks

Stadium Background

BFA Vilnius vs Garliava

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Osipovic A.
57' Event
Rakasius T.
(Penalty)
61' Event
Del Campo M.

AI Match Summary

The I Lyga game between BFA Vilnius and Garliava finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Garliava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
BFA Vilnius
20%
Draws
0%
Garliava
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: BFA Vilnius

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • BFA Vilnius carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives BFA Vilnius a 80% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
BFA Vilnius Clean Sheet 20%
Garliava Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFA Vilnius Garliava
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 8
Draws 4 5
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.55 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 I Lyga
Garliava vs BFA Vilnius
2:3
May 19, 2026 Lithuanian Cup
BFA Vilnius vs Garliava
2:1
May 9, 2026 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Garliava
1:2
Aug 9, 2024 I Lyga
Garliava vs BFA Vilnius
2:2
Mar 16, 2024 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Garliava
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFA Vilnius Compare

Top Goalscorer Osipovic A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Garliava Compare

Top Goalscorer Del Campo M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.46
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFA Vilnius 85 / 100
Garliava 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFA Vilnius Garliava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFA Vilnius Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: BFA Vilnius stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Garliava lost 5 of their last 5 games.

BFA Vilnius's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

BFA Vilnius VS Garliava
2.13 Goals Scored 0.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

BFA Vilnius

(Home)
12 Sept
Garliava
2 : 3
BFA Vilnius
04 Sept
BFA Vilnius
2 : 1
FK Babrungas
28 Aug
Tauras Taurage
2 : 2
BFA Vilnius
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0
Neptunas
15 Aug
Dainava Alytus
0 : 0
BFA Vilnius
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Garliava

(Away)
12 Sept
Garliava
2 : 3
BFA Vilnius
05 Sept
Ekranas
1 : 0
Garliava
29 Aug
Garliava
0 : 1
FK Babrungas
21 Aug
BE1 NFA
2 : 0
Garliava
15 Aug
Garliava
0 : 1
Tauras Taurage
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Minija 23 20 1 2 61:12 61
2 FK Babrungas 24 18 4 2 42:11 58
3 BE1 NFA 23 15 2 6 41:24 47
4 Neptunas 24 14 2 8 32:28 44
5 Zalgiris 2 24 13 4 7 38:31 43
6 BFA Vilnius 24 13 3 8 38:34 42
7 Tauras Taurage 24 12 4 8 40:29 40
8 Dainava Alytus 23 10 7 6 33:23 37
9 FK Atmosfera 23 8 5 10 36:32 29
10 Jonava 24 7 6 11 26:30 27
11 Hegelmann Litauen 2 24 7 1 16 30:55 22
12 Garliava 23 6 4 13 25:27 22
13 Transinvest 2 24 6 3 15 28:56 21
14 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 23 6 1 16 20:36 19
15 Ekranas 24 4 2 18 23:52 14
16 Siauliai 2 24 3 5 16 21:54 14
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)