Sport Picks

Stadium Background

BFA Vilnius vs Neptunas

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

72' Event
Skurdelis A.
Own Goal
82' Event
Kezunas A.

AI Match Summary

BFA Vilnius in this I Lyga matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored BFA Vilnius.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
BFA Vilnius
20%
Draws
42%
Neptunas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Neptunas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Neptunas lately — more wins on the board than BFA Vilnius.
  • BFA Vilnius are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular I Lyga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
BFA Vilnius Clean Sheet 20%
Neptunas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFA Vilnius Neptunas
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 16
Draws 4 3
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.52 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Neptunas
2:0
Apr 17, 2026 I Lyga
Neptunas vs BFA Vilnius
1:3
Oct 18, 2025 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Neptunas
1:5
Jun 13, 2025 I Lyga
Neptunas vs BFA Vilnius
2:0
Aug 30, 2024 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Neptunas
0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFA Vilnius Compare

Top Goalscorer Kezunas A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Neptunas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFA Vilnius 67 / 100
Neptunas 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFA Vilnius Neptunas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFA Vilnius Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

BFA Vilnius's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Neptunas has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: BFA Vilnius stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

BFA Vilnius VS Neptunas
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

BFA Vilnius

(Home)
28 Aug
Tauras Taurage
2 : 2
BFA Vilnius
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0
Neptunas
15 Aug
Dainava Alytus
0 : 0
BFA Vilnius
08 Aug
BFA Vilnius
4 : 2
Transinvest 2
02 Aug
Siauliai 2
1 : 0
BFA Vilnius
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Neptunas

(Away)
29 Aug
Neptunas
3 : 1
FK Atmosfera
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0
Neptunas
15 Aug
Neptunas
0 : 4
FK Babrungas
08 Aug
Tauras Taurage
0 : 2
Neptunas
01 Aug
Garliava
0 : 1
Neptunas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Babrungas 22 17 4 1 38:7 55
2 FK Minija 21 18 1 2 55:12 55
3 Neptunas 22 13 2 7 30:27 41
4 BE1 NFA 21 13 2 6 38:24 41
5 Tauras Taurage 22 12 4 6 39:25 40
6 Zalgiris 2 22 11 4 7 36:31 37
7 Dainava Alytus 21 10 6 5 33:20 36
8 BFA Vilnius 22 11 3 8 33:31 36
9 FK Atmosfera 21 7 5 9 31:28 26
10 Jonava 22 7 5 10 26:28 26
11 Garliava 21 6 4 11 23:23 22
12 Hegelmann Litauen 2 22 6 1 15 24:50 19
13 Transinvest 2 22 5 3 14 24:52 18
14 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 21 5 1 15 18:34 16
15 Siauliai 2 22 3 5 14 20:47 14
16 Ekranas 22 3 2 17 21:50 11
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)