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Stadium Background

BFA Vilnius vs Neptunas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

72' Event
Skurdelis A.
Own Goal
82' Event
Kezunas A.

AI Match Summary

BFA Vilnius in this I Lyga matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored BFA Vilnius.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
BFA Vilnius
15%
Draws
36%
Neptunas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: BFA Vilnius

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • BFA Vilnius average 1.4 goals a game right now, well clear of Neptunas's 1.17.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular I Lyga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
BFA Vilnius Clean Sheet 20%
Neptunas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFA Vilnius Neptunas
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 15
Draws 4 2
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.4 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Neptunas
2:0
Apr 17, 2026 I Lyga
Neptunas vs BFA Vilnius
1:3
Oct 18, 2025 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Neptunas
1:5
Jun 13, 2025 I Lyga
Neptunas vs BFA Vilnius
2:0
Aug 30, 2024 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Neptunas
0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFA Vilnius Compare

Top Goalscorer Kezunas A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Neptunas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFA Vilnius 36 / 100
Neptunas 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFA Vilnius Neptunas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Neptunas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

BFA Vilnius's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Neptunas has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Neptunas's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

BFA Vilnius VS Neptunas
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

BFA Vilnius

(Home)
16 Oct
Jonava
3 : 0
BFA Vilnius
09 Oct
BFA Vilnius
1 : 2
Zalgiris 2
26 Sept
FK Panevezys
2 : 0
BFA Vilnius
19 Sept
FK Atmosfera
1 : 1
BFA Vilnius
12 Sept
Garliava
2 : 3
BFA Vilnius
Page 1 of 6

Neptunas

(Away)
16 Oct
BE1 NFA
2 : 0
Neptunas
10 Oct
Neptunas
0 : 1
Hegelmann Litauen 2
19 Sept
FK Minija
2 : 1
Neptunas
11 Sept
Neptunas
2 : 0
Jonava
07 Sept
Zalgiris 2
1 : 0
Neptunas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Babrungas 27 21 4 2 48:13 67
2 FK Minija 26 22 1 3 70:16 67
3 BE1 NFA 26 17 3 6 48:26 54
4 Zalgiris 2 27 14 4 9 42:36 46
5 Neptunas 27 14 2 11 33:33 44
6 Dainava Alytus 27 12 8 7 40:28 44
7 Tauras Taurage 26 13 5 8 47:35 44
8 BFA Vilnius 27 13 4 10 40:40 43
9 FK Atmosfera 26 9 7 10 40:35 34
10 Garliava 27 9 5 13 34:30 32
11 Jonava 27 8 6 13 31:35 30
12 Transinvest 2 27 7 4 16 32:59 25
13 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 27 7 2 18 26:48 23
14 Hegelmann Litauen 2 27 7 2 18 31:63 23
15 Siauliai 2 27 4 6 17 32:62 18
16 Ekranas 27 4 3 20 27:62 15
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)