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Binissalem vs Penya Independent - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Pinto A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025 game between Binissalem and Penya Independent finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Binissalem.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Binissalem
30%
Draws
47%
Penya Independent
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penya Independent

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Binissalem carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Penya Independent are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Binissalem Clean Sheet 23%
Penya Independent Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Binissalem Penya Independent
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 10 8
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.89 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Binissalem vs Penya Independent
1:0
Oct 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Penya Independent vs Binissalem
1:0
Mar 12, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Penya Independent vs Binissalem
4:1
Nov 5, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Binissalem vs Penya Independent
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Binissalem Compare

Top Goalscorer Pinto A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Penya Independent Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Binissalem 10 / 100
Penya Independent 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Binissalem Penya Independent

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penya Independent Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Binissalem's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Penya Independent has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Binissalem remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Binissalem VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Binissalem

(Home)
03 Oct
Binissalem
3 : 0
Sineu
27 Sept
Migjorn
1 : 0
Binissalem
18 Sept
Binissalem
0 : 3
Platges de Calvia
12 Sept
Binissalem
1 : 3
Cardassar
05 Sept
Manacor
2 : 1
Binissalem
Page 1 of 7

Penya Independent

(Away)
08 Jun
Porreres
1 : 1
Penya Independent
31 May
Penya Independent
0 : 0
Porreres
24 May
Constancia
0 : 1
Penya Independent
17 May
Penya Independent
1 : 1
Constancia
11 May
Santanyi
1 : 0
Penya Independent
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Poblense 34 22 6 6 47:17 72
2 Constancia 34 18 13 3 55:31 67
3 Formentera 34 19 9 6 68:34 66
4 Porreres 34 17 11 6 51:32 62
5 Penya Independent 34 17 7 10 59:34 58
6 Platges de Calvia 34 14 12 8 51:37 54
7 Manacor 34 13 12 9 54:36 51
8 Alcudia 34 13 8 13 51:53 47
9 Binissalem 34 13 8 13 35:34 47
10 Llosetense 34 12 8 14 47:45 44
11 Santanyi 34 10 13 11 40:45 43
12 Mercadal 34 10 10 14 40:43 40
13 Felanitx 34 10 10 14 33:50 40
14 Collerense 34 9 12 13 42:48 39
15 Portmany 34 8 13 13 43:51 37
16 PE Sant Jordi 34 8 6 20 30:52 30
17 Campos 34 4 8 22 31:75 20
18 Migjorn 34 4 4 26 22:82 16
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025 (Play Offs)