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Bitonto vs Casarano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Celli A.

AI Match Summary

Casarano in this Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Casarano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Bitonto
15%
Draws
46%
Casarano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Casarano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Casarano lately — more wins on the board than Bitonto.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Casarano taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Casarano have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Bitonto Clean Sheet 12%
Casarano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bitonto Casarano
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 6 22
Draws 8 4
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.73 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Casarano vs Bitonto
2:1
Dec 20, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Bitonto vs Casarano
0:1
May 7, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Bitonto vs Casarano
2:2
Dec 21, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Casarano vs Bitonto
1:0
Mar 6, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Bitonto vs Casarano
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bitonto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Casarano Compare

Top Goalscorer Celli A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bitonto 14 / 100
Casarano 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bitonto Casarano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Casarano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Casarano conceded in 67% of 36 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Bitonto scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Bitonto stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Casarano
0 Goals Scored 2.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bitonto

(Home)
05 May
Casarano
2 : 1
Bitonto
28 Apr
Bitonto
2 : 1
Altamura
21 Apr
Gravina
5 : 1
Bitonto
14 Apr
Bitonto
2 : 0
Palmese 1914
07 Apr
Fidelis Andria
2 : 1
Bitonto
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Casarano

(Away)
27 Sept
Casarano
0 : 1
Monopoli
19 Sept
A.C. Savoia
1 : 1
Casarano
15 Sept
Casarano
1 : 0
Audace Cerignola
11 Sept
Casarano
3 : 1
Barletta
05 Sept
Bari
1 : 0
Casarano
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Altamura 34 21 9 4 51:23 72
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 12 4 51:23 66
3 A.C.D. Nardo 34 20 5 9 53:24 65
4 Fidelis Andria 34 17 10 7 58:32 61
5 Casarano 34 15 10 9 45:32 55
6 Matera 34 15 8 11 45:37 53
7 Paganese 34 12 9 13 42:43 45
8 Palmese 1914 34 13 7 14 45:52 45
9 Gelbison 34 11 10 13 41:37 43
10 Rotonda 34 11 9 14 36:36 42
11 Gravina 34 10 11 13 49:44 41
12 Manfredonia 34 9 15 10 28:38 41
13 Citta di Fasano 34 11 8 15 38:57 41
14 Angri 34 10 9 15 35:52 39
15 Gallipoli 34 8 9 17 27:49 33
16 Barletta 34 6 12 16 30:45 30
17 Bitonto 34 7 9 18 22:45 30
18 Santa Maria Cilento 34 5 10 19 22:55 25
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 (Play Out)