Sport Picks

Netherlands

Derde Divisie 2025/2026

Groene Ster

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Blauw Geel play Groene Ster in the Derde Divisie 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Blauw Geel averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Groene Ster averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. In past meetings, Blauw Geel won 4, Groene Ster won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 6, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.19 for Blauw Geel and 1.31 for Groene Ster. This points to a Blauw Geel double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%

Blauw Geel

15%

Draws

32%

Groene Ster

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Blauw Geel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Blauw Geel picked up more points recently compared to Groene Ster.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.19 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 65%

Over 3.5 Goals 39%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Blauw Geel Clean Sheet 18%

Groene Ster Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Blauw Geel	Groene Ster
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	11	9
Draws	5	3
Losses	14	18
Goals Scored	1.53	1.2
Goals Conceded	1.6	1.9
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Derde Divisie

Blauw Geel vs Groene Ster

Possession: 53% - 49% Cards: 0 - 2

4:0

Aug 17, 2025 Derde Divisie

Groene Ster vs Blauw Geel

Possession: 49% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

May 12, 2024 Derde Divisie

Groene Ster vs Blauw Geel

Possession: 47% - 45% Cards: 3 - 0

0:3

Dec 3, 2023 Derde Divisie

Blauw Geel vs Groene Ster

Possession: 59% - 41% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Feb 12, 2023 Derde Divisie

Blauw Geel vs Groene Ster

Possession: 46% - 46% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Blauw Geel 51 / 100

Groene Ster 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Blauw Geel Groene Ster

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Blauw Geel Win (1)

Secondary Pick Blauw Geel & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.7%

2.22

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.9%

1.69

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Blauw Geel attacking → ← attacking Groene Ster

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Blauw Geel scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Groene Ster let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Blauw Geel went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Groene Ster lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 30

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rohda Raalte	34	20	7	7	63:36	67
2	DVS '33 Ermelo	34	17	11	6	59:39	62
3	Sparta Nijkerk	34	19	4	11	84:43	61
4	ADO 20 Heemskerk	34	17	9	8	46:36	60
5	Genemuiden	34	17	5	12	61:52	56
6	Staphorst	34	17	3	14	63:53	54
7	Harkemase Boys	34	14	10	10	56:44	52
8	VV DOVO	34	15	7	12	53:43	52
9	Eemdijk	34	14	8	12	68:59	50
10	VV Scherpenzeel	34	14	7	13	59:49	49
11	VV Hoogeveen	34	14	6	14	54:64	48
12	Sportlust	34	14	5	15	54:52	47
13	USV Hercules	34	13	5	16	53:57	44
14	Excelsior 31	34	12	4	18	49:57	40
15	Huizen	34	11	7	16	51:63	40
16	TEC	34	12	4	18	48:64	40
17	Urk	34	8	7	19	61:97	31
18	HSC '21	34	1	5	28	35:109	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	VV Kloetinge	34	22	7	5	68:43	73
2	Lisse	34	20	8	6	67:33	68
3	VVSB	34	21	5	8	70:37	68
4	Rijnvogels	34	19	7	8	63:39	64
5	Gemert	34	17	10	7	71:46	61
6	Roosendaal	34	15	9	10	71:58	54
7	TOGB	34	15	8	11	64:61	53
8	VV Zwaluwen	34	15	6	13	61:48	51
9	Blauw Geel	34	14	6	14	53:51	48
10	VV Noordwijk	34	12	8	14	56:51	44
11	RKSV UDI 19	34	11	6	17	57:74	39
12	UNA	34	10	8	16	51:59	38
13	GOES	34	10	7	17	43:61	37
14	Groene Ster	34	10	6	18	45:64	36
15	SteDoCo	34	10	4	20	35:69	34
16	SVV Scheveningen	34	9	5	20	49:65	32
17	Meerssen	34	8	7	19	47:70	31
18	ASWH	34	6	7	21	45:87	25