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Boavista vs Vasco - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Carioca Estadio Elcyr Resende de Mendonca, Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Rodriguez J.
46'
Sub
Lucas Piton In: Joao Vitor
Out: Lucas Piton
46'
Sub
Bere In: Sandrinho
Out: Bere

AI Match Summary

The Carioca game between Boavista and Vasco finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vasco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Boavista
30%
Draws
38%
Vasco
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vasco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Vasco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Carioca form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Boavista Clean Sheet 26%
Vasco Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Boavista Vasco
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 7 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 0.9 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.43 0.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Carioca
Boavista vs Vasco
0:3
Jan 19, 2025 Carioca
Boavista vs Vasco
1:1
Jan 18, 2024 Carioca
Vasco vs Boavista
2:0
Feb 27, 2023 Carioca
Vasco vs Boavista
4:1
Jan 30, 2022 Carioca
Vasco vs Boavista
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Boavista Compare

Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.71

Vasco Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Gomez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Boavista 38 / 100
Vasco 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Boavista Vasco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vasco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Boavista has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Boavista scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Vasco has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Boavista VS Vasco
1.6 Goals Scored 1.38
0.2 Goals Conceded 1.25
80% Over 1.5 63%
20% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Boavista

(Home)
26 Sept
Boavista
2 : 0
Nova Iguacu
19 Sept
Nova Iguacu
1 : 1
Boavista
02 Sept
Madureira
0 : 0
Boavista
26 Aug
Boavista
2 : 0
Madureira
12 Aug
Boavista
3 : 0
Marica
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Vasco

(Away)
07 Oct
Botafogo RJ
1 : 2
Vasco
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
15 Sept
Vasco
2 : 0
Santa Fe
12 Sept
Gremio
1 : 2
Vasco
08 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 0
Vasco
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fluminense 6 5 0 1 9:5 15
2 Vasco 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
3 Volta Redonda 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
4 Bangu 6 3 1 2 7:7 10
5 Portuguesa RJ 6 2 1 3 6:7 7
6 Sampaio Correa FE 6 2 1 3 7:14 7
Promotion - Carioca (Taca Guanabara - Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo RJ 6 3 0 3 6:5 9
2 Madureira 6 2 2 2 5:6 8
3 Boavista 6 2 2 2 6:8 8
4 Flamengo RJ 6 2 1 3 11:9 7
5 Nova Iguacu 6 1 2 3 8:9 5
6 Marica 6 1 0 5 5:10 3
Promotion - Carioca (Taca Guanabara - Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca (Relegation Group)