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Bohemians vs Longford

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AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Bohemians averaging 2.0 xG at home and Longford producing 1.6 xG on their travels. Longford will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Bohemians to find a way to break them down. A single goal could decide this. The Under 3.5 goals market offers solid value. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Bohemians
31%
Draws
27%
Longford
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Bohemians

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Bohemians picked up more points recently compared to Longford.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Bohemians Clean Sheet 15%
Longford Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bohemians Longford
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 13 9
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.64 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

16.01.26 Club Friendly
Bohemians vs Longford
2:1
06.02.25 Club Friendly
Bohemians vs Longford
0:0
11.02.23 Club Friendly
Bohemians vs Longford
1:0
01.02.22 Club Friendly
Bohemians vs Longford
1:1
02.10.21 Premier Division
Longford vs Bohemians
1:4

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Bohemians

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Longford

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bohemians Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
12 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
9 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.85
Avg xA / game 1.23

Longford Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
11 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
9 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.7
Avg xA / game 1.13

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Longford • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Bohemians • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Longford • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Bohemians • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bohemians 41 / 100
Longford 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bohemians Longford

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bohemians or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Bohemians will likely press early to force mistakes.

Bohemians 59%
Longford 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Longford should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Bohemians 54%
Longford 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Bohemians 51%
Longford 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Bohemians to push more players wide.

Bohemians 56%
Longford 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Bohemians 51%
Longford 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Bohemians 62%
Longford 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bohemians attacking → ← attacking Longford

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bohemians have scored in 94% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Longford concede most goals (48%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 18 shots per game, well above the league median.

Bohemians are unbeaten in 5 straight matches when scoring first.

Longford have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 7 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Bohemians wants a European spot, while Longford is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 34
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.56
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2