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Bohemians vs Waterford - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ireland Ireland

FAI Cup Dalymount Park, Dublin
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the FAI Cup. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: Bohemians at 1.93 goals for, 1.27 against; Waterford at 1.66 for, 1.48 against. Past meetings favor Bohemians slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 9, 2026, ending 3:1. xG projections (1.75 - 1.81) back Bohemians to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Bohemians
30%
Draws
27%
Waterford
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bohemians

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Bohemians have won more games recently than Waterford.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Bohemians taking it.
  • Bohemians have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Bohemians, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Bohemians Clean Sheet 11%
Waterford Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bohemians Waterford
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 10
Draws 7 11
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.93 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Bohemians
3:1
Apr 6, 2026 Premier Division
Bohemians vs Waterford
1:1
Mar 6, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Bohemians
0:1
Jan 30, 2026 Club Friendly
Waterford vs Bohemians
1:4
Sep 19, 2025 Premier Division
Bohemians vs Waterford
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bohemians 35 / 100
Waterford 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bohemians Waterford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bohemians's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Bohemians has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Waterford let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Bohemians VS Waterford
2.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bohemians

(Home)
02 Oct
Dundalk
1 : 2
Bohemians
26 Sept
Bohemians
0 : 0
Bohemians 1905
18 Sept
Bohemians
2 : 1
Drogheda
11 Sept
Galway United
2 : 3
Bohemians
05 Sept
St. Patricks
1 : 2
Bohemians
Page 1 of 6

Waterford

(Away)
18 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
3 : 2
Waterford
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2
Derry City
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1
Dundalk
04 Sept
Waterford
3 : 0
Sligo Rovers
28 Aug
St. Patricks
0 : 2
Waterford
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
St. Patricks -
TBD -
TBD -
Wexford -
Shamrock Rovers -
TBD -
TBD -
Cork City -
Liffey Wanderers 1
Ringmahon Rangers 2
TBD -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 2
Leicester Celtic AFC 0
TBD -
Longford -
Waterford -
TBD -
TBD -
Cobh Ramblers -
Athlone -
TBD -
Midleton 2
Mayfield Utd 0
St. Michaels 1
Janesboro 3
TBD -
Sligo Rovers -
Kerry -
TBD -
TBD -
Shelbourne -
Bangor Celtic 4
River Valley Rangers 1
College Corinthians 2
Killester Donnycarney 1
Drogheda -
TBD -
Lucan Utd 5
University College Cork 2
Galway United -
TBD -
Crumlin Utd 4
Salthill 0
Finn Harps -
TBD -
TBD -
Bray -
Treaty United -
TBD -
TBD -
UC Dublin -
Derry City -
TBD -
Fairview Rangers 0
Tolka 3
Wayside Celtic 3
St Mochta's 4
TBD -
Dundalk -
Douglas Hall 1
Fanad United 0
Castlebar Celtic 3
North End United 0
1/16-finals
St. Patricks 2
Wexford 1
Shamrock Rovers 4
Cork City 1
Ringmahon Rangers -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 0
Longford 8
Waterford 2
Cobh Ramblers 1
Athlone 3
Midleton 0
Janesboro 0
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 3
Shelbourne 2
Bangor Celtic 4
College Corinthians 5
Drogheda 4
Lucan Utd 0
Galway United 4
Crumlin Utd 0
Finn Harps 0
Bray 1
Treaty United 1
UC Dublin 2
Derry City 3
Tolka 0
St Mochta's 1
Dundalk 3
Douglas Hall 0
Castlebar Celtic 1
1/8-finals
St. Patricks 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
Bohemians 4
Longford 0
Waterford 2
Athlone 1
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 0
College Corinthians 0
Drogheda 3
Galway United 2
Bray 1
UC Dublin 1
Derry City 2
Dundalk 8
Castlebar Celtic 0
Quarter-finals
St. Patricks 1
Bohemians 2
Waterford 3
Sligo Rovers 0
Drogheda 1
Galway United 2
Derry City 4
Dundalk 2
Semi-finals
Bohemians -
Waterford -
Galway United -
Derry City -
Final
TBD -
TBD -