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Bolivar vs Monagas

Venezuela Venezuela

Copa Venezuela
Wed, Jul 1, 2026
VS
08:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa Venezuela. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Monagas have shipped 0.5 goals a game lately, while Bolivar have conceded 0.88 and scored 1.13. Past meetings favor Monagas slightly — 0-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 5, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 0.81 vs 0.88, favoring Bolivar. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Bolivar
39%
Draws
30%
Monagas
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bolivar lately — more wins on the board than Monagas.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Bolivar have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Bolivar Clean Sheet 20%
Monagas Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bolivar Monagas
Matches Played 24 25
Wins 8 5
Draws 6 4
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.13 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Copa Venezuela
Monagas vs Bolivar
0:0
Jul 1, 2026 Copa Venezuela
Bolivar vs Monagas
0:0
Jul 2, 2025 Copa Venezuela
Bolivar vs Monagas
0:0
Jun 11, 2025 Copa Venezuela
Monagas vs Bolivar
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bolivar 32 / 100
Monagas 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bolivar Monagas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MON Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monagas's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 25 matches.

Solid form: Bolivar remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Bolivar scored in 54% of their last 24 games.

These sides typically produce 0.25 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Bolivar VS Monagas
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bolivar

(Home)
24 Jun
Mineros
1 : 1
Bolivar
06 Jun
Bolivar
2 : 0
Deportivo Miranda
31 May
Avila
0 : 0
Bolivar
23 May
Maritimo de Venezuela
2 : 1
Bolivar
17 May
Bolivar
2 : 1
Monagas B
Page 1 of 5

Monagas

(Away)
24 Jun
Dynamo Puerto FC
0 : 4
Monagas
25 Apr
Monagas
1 : 1
Academia Puerto Cabello
19 Apr
Estudiantes Merida
3 : 2
Monagas
11 Apr
Monagas
3 : 0
Rayo Zuliano
04 Apr
Zamora
2 : 1
Monagas
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Academia Anzoategui11003:13
2Deportivo Miranda00000:00
3Maritimo de Venezuela00000:00
4Avila10011:30
Promotion - Copa Venezuela (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Zamora11006:13
2Atletico Barinas11001:03
3Real Frontera10010:10
4Atletico El Vigia10011:60
Promotion - Copa Venezuela (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Yaracuyanos11004:03
2Aragua10101:11
3Caracas10101:11
4Barquisimeto10010:40
Promotion - Copa Venezuela (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 4)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Urena11001:03
2Trujillanos10100:01
3Rayo Zuliano10100:01
4Lara10010:10
Promotion - Copa Venezuela (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 5)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Monagas11004:03
2Mineros10101:11
3Bolivar10101:11
4Dynamo Puerto FC10010:40
Promotion - Copa Venezuela (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams