Sport Picks
Match Events
23'
23'
Arboleda R.
Assist: Iago Borduchi
50'
50'
Iago Borduchi
54'
54'
Sub
Sagredo J. In: Batallini D.
Out: Sagredo J.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
30%
27%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bolivar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Bolivar have won more games recently than Sao Paulo.
- 43% — that's where the model lands on Bolivar taking it.
- Bolivar have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Bolivar, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Bolivar Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bolivar | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 16 | 9 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 5 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2.11 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 19, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Sao Paulo vs Bolivar
3:1
Aug 12, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Bolivar vs Sao Paulo
1:1
Jan 31, 2013 Copa Libertadores
Bolivar vs Sao Paulo
4:3
Jan 24, 2013 Copa Libertadores
Sao Paulo vs Bolivar
5:0
Apr 14, 1992 Copa Libertadores
Sao Paulo vs Bolivar
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bolivar Compare
Top Goalscorer Melgar C. A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Sao Paulo Compare
Top Goalscorer Arboleda R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bolivar 86 / 100
Sao Paulo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bolivar Sao Paulo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Bolivar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Bolivar scored in 93% of their last 28 outings.
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Bolivar went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Sao Paulo conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Bolivar VS Sao Paulo
3 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 13%
63% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Bolivar
(Home) 27 Sept
Bolivar
3 : 0 Blooming
20 Sept
The Strongest
1 : 1 Bolivar
18 Sept
Bolivar
4 : 2 GV San Jose
14 Sept
Tomayapo
1 : 2 Bolivar
11 Sept
Bolivar
1 : 1 Independiente
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Bolivar
3 : 0 Blooming
18 Sept
Bolivar
4 : 2 GV San Jose
11 Sept
Bolivar
1 : 1 Independiente
30 Aug
Bolivar
4 : 2 The Strongest
28 Aug
Bolivar
4 : 1 Academia del Balompie
Page 1 of 3
Sao Paulo
(Away) 20 Sept
Sao Paulo
1 : 0 Internacional
16 Sept
Sao Paulo
1 : 1 Boca Juniors
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0 Sao Paulo
09 Sept
Boca Juniors
1 : 0 Sao Paulo
05 Sept
Sao Paulo
2 : 0 Atletico-MG
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0 Sao Paulo
09 Sept
Boca Juniors
1 : 0 Sao Paulo
23 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 0 Sao Paulo
12 Aug
Bolivar
1 : 1 Sao Paulo
08 Aug
Gremio
2 : 1 Sao Paulo
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Boca Juniors 2
O Higgins 1
TBD -
Recoleta -
Bolivar 4
Gremio 2
TBD -
Sao Paulo -
Santa Fe 5
Caracas 0
TBD -
River Plate -
Ind. Medellin 2
Vasco 3
TBD -
Olimpia Asuncion -
Sporting Cristal 0
Bragantino 1
TBD -
Atletico-MG -
Universidad Central 3
Santos 8
TBD -
Macara -
Club Nacional 2
Tigre 4
TBD -
Montevideo City -
Lanus 2
Cienciano 4
TBD -
Botafogo RJ -
1/8-finals
Boca Juniors 7
Recoleta 1
Bolivar 2
Sao Paulo 4
Santa Fe 2
River Plate 1
Vasco 4
Olimpia Asuncion 1
Bragantino 2
Atletico-MG 3
Santos 2
Macara 1
Tigre 1
Montevideo City 3
Cienciano 6
Botafogo RJ 2
Quarter-finals
Boca Juniors 2
Sao Paulo 1
Santa Fe 0
Vasco 2
Atletico-MG 5
Santos 4
Montevideo City 3
Cienciano 2
Semi-finals
Boca Juniors -
Vasco -
Atletico-MG -
Montevideo City -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
