Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton

Bolton

1 - 0

Rotherham

Our Tip

Match Events

37'

Gale T.

Assist: Taylor R.

45'

Gale T.

46'

Sub

Christie C. In: Dacres-Cogley J.

Out: Christie C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bolton in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Bolton

35%

Draws

25%

Rotherham

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bolton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence

Bolton have won more games recently than Rotherham.
40% — that's where the model lands on Bolton taking it.
Bolton have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Bolton, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Bolton Clean Sheet 20%

Rotherham Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Bolton	Rotherham
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	13	6
Draws	11	8
Losses	5	15
Goals Scored	1.69	0.83
Goals Conceded	1.14	1.48
Expected Goals (xG)	1.06	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 League One

Rotherham vs Bolton

2:2

Dec 26, 2025 League One

Bolton vs Rotherham

2:1

Sep 2, 2025 EFL Trophy

Bolton vs Rotherham

1:0

Apr 8, 2025 League One

Bolton vs Rotherham

0:1

Jan 11, 2025 League One

Rotherham vs Bolton

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bolton Compare

Top Goalscorer Gale T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.82

Avg xA / game 0.53

Rotherham Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bolton 49 / 100

Rotherham 23 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Bolton Rotherham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bolton Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bolton found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Rotherham conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Bolton remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Bolton VS Rotherham

1 Goals Scored 1

0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13

50% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 13%

13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bolton

(Home)

22 Aug

QPR

0 : 0

Bolton

15 Aug

Bolton

2 : 1

Preston

08 Aug

Sheffield Wed

1 : 0

Bolton

01 Aug

Bolton

1 : 0

NAC Breda

28 Jul

Fleetwood Town

1 : 1

Bolton

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Rotherham

(Away)

22 Aug

Rotherham

1 : 1

York City

15 Aug

Cheltenham

2 : 1

Rotherham

08 Aug

Rotherham

1 : 4

West Brom

04 Aug

Rotherham

1 : 1

Derby

28 Jul

Darlington FC

0 : 2

Rotherham

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