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Bonsucesso vs CEAC/Araruama

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Leo Pedro
61' Event
Leo Pedro
67' Event
Beto

AI Match Summary

The Carioca 2 game between Bonsucesso and CEAC/Araruama finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bonsucesso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Bonsucesso
39%
Draws
31%
CEAC/Araruama
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Bonsucesso carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Carioca 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 68%
CEAC/Araruama Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bonsucesso CEAC/Araruama
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 9 9
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Carioca 2
Bonsucesso vs CEAC/Araruama
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bonsucesso Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Pedro
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

CEAC/Araruama Compare

Top Goalscorer Beto
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bonsucesso 41 / 100
CEAC/Araruama 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bonsucesso CEAC/Araruama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bonsucesso found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: CEAC/Araruama conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Bonsucesso remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Bonsucesso VS CEAC/Araruama
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bonsucesso

(Home)
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2
Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2
America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0
Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6

CEAC/Araruama

(Away)
22 Jul
Boavista
4 : 0
CEAC/Araruama
15 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
0 : 1
Boavista
08 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
2 : 1
Sao Cristovao
04 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 1
Cabofriense
27 Jun
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 0
Olaria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Americano 11 8 1 2 18:9 25
2 Marica 11 7 3 1 11:7 24
3 Resende 11 5 4 2 16:9 19
4 America RJ 11 5 1 5 18:14 16
5 Perolas Negras 11 5 1 5 11:15 16
6 Sao Goncalo 11 4 2 5 11:10 14
7 Bonsucesso 11 4 2 5 10:11 14
8 Olaria 11 3 4 4 11:11 13
9 Cabofriense 11 3 3 5 12:13 12
10 CEAC/Araruama 11 3 2 6 11:15 11
11 Serrano FC 11 2 5 4 10:18 11
12 Audax RJ 11 3 0 8 10:17 9
Promotion - Carioca 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B1 (Main)