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Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy

World World

World Championship 2026 Bilino Polje
Tue, Mar 31, 2026
2 - 1
06:45 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Kean M.
Assist: Barella N.
41'
Bastoni A.
44'
Sub
Retegui M. In: Gatti F.
Out: Retegui M.

AI Match Summary

The World Championship 2026 game between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Italy finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
33%
Draws
40%
Italy
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Italy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Italy come out ahead of Bosnia & Herzegovina on wins alone.
  • Model gives Italy a 40% chance of winning this.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this World Championship 2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Bosnia & Herzegovina Clean Sheet 16%
Italy Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bosnia & Herzegovina Italy
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 18
Draws 7 5
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 World Championship
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy
2:1
Jun 9, 2024 Friendly International
Italy vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
1:0
Nov 18, 2020 UEFA Nations League
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy
0:2
Sep 4, 2020 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
1:1
Nov 15, 2019 Euro
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bosnia & Herzegovina Compare

Top Goalscorer Tabakovic H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Italy Compare

Top Goalscorer Kean M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bosnia & Herzegovina 28 / 100
Italy 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bosnia & Herzegovina Italy

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ITA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bosnia & Herzegovina's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Italy conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Bosnia & Herzegovina went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bosnia & Herzegovina VS Italy
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Wales1
Bosnia & Herzegovina2
Italy2
Northern Ireland0
Ukraine1
Sweden3
Poland2
Albania1
Slovakia3
Kosovo4
Turkey1
Romania0
Czech Republic3
Ireland2
Denmark4
North Macedonia0
Final
Bosnia & Herzegovina2
Italy1
Sweden3
Poland2
Kosovo0
Turkey1
Czech Republic3
Denmark2