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Botafogo DF vs Gremio Valparaiso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2 2024
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Match Events

24' Event
Charles

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2 2024 game between Botafogo DF and Gremio Valparaiso finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gremio Valparaiso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Botafogo DF
30%
Draws
70%
Gremio Valparaiso
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gremio Valparaiso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Gremio Valparaiso's 1.42 goals per match outpaces what Botafogo DF have produced (1.2).
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Gremio Valparaiso taking it.
  • Regular Brasiliense 2 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Botafogo DF Clean Sheet 10%
Gremio Valparaiso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Botafogo DF Gremio Valparaiso
Matches Played 30 19
Wins 6 6
Draws 5 3
Losses 19 10
Goals Scored 1.2 1.42
Goals Conceded 2.73 2.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2024 Brasiliense 2
Botafogo DF vs Gremio Valparaiso
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Botafogo DF Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Gremio Valparaiso Compare

Top Goalscorer Charles
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botafogo DF 10 / 100
Gremio Valparaiso 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Botafogo DF Gremio Valparaiso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio Valparaiso Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio Valparaiso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 19 matches.

Botafogo DF's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Gremio Valparaiso has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Botafogo DF VS Gremio Valparaiso
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
3.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Botafogo DF

(Home)
02 Oct
Luziania
7 : 0
Botafogo DF
29 Sept
Riacho City
3 : 2
Botafogo DF
23 Sept
Botafogo DF
0 : 1
Gremio Valparaiso
19 Sept
Taguatinga
4 : 0
Botafogo DF
14 Sept
Botafogo DF
1 : 9
Sobradinho
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Gremio Valparaiso

(Away)
26 Sept
Legiao
3 : 3
Gremio Valparaiso
20 Sept
Luziania
0 : 6
Gremio Valparaiso
12 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
0 : 2
Taguatinga
06 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
1 : 1
Candango
30 Aug
Planaltina
1 : 1
Gremio Valparaiso
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Taguatinga 7 5 2 0 22:2 17
2 Sobradinho 7 4 3 0 29:5 15
3 SESP Brasilia 7 4 2 1 10:2 14
4 Legiao 7 4 1 2 16:3 13
5 Luziania 7 3 0 4 17:8 9
6 Gremio Valparaiso 7 3 0 4 8:21 9
7 Riacho City 7 1 0 6 6:40 3
8 Botafogo DF 7 0 0 7 3:30 0
Promotion - Brasiliense 2 2024 (Play Offs)