Sport Picks

South America

Copa Sudamericana Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro

Botafogo RJ

3 - 0

Independiente

Our Tip

Match Events

15'

Ponte M.

Assist: Alex Telles

56'

Sub

Cardozo R. In: Mercado A.

Out: Cardozo R.

56'

Sub

Cristaldo J. E. In: Rivas R.

Out: Cristaldo J. E.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-3. This leg finished 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Botafogo RJ

30%

Draws

31%

Independiente

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Botafogo RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence

Botafogo RJ have won more games recently than Independiente.
Model gives Botafogo RJ a 39% chance of winning this.
Botafogo RJ have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Botafogo RJ, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%

Botafogo RJ Clean Sheet 68%

Independiente Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Botafogo RJ	Independiente
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	13	8
Draws	8	5
Losses	8	15
Goals Scored	1.52	1.25
Goals Conceded	1.28	1.89
Expected Goals (xG)	1.44	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

Independiente vs Botafogo RJ

0:3

Apr 28, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

Botafogo RJ vs Independiente

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Botafogo RJ Compare

Top Goalscorer Ponte M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Montoro A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.11

Avg xA / game 0.72

Independiente Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botafogo RJ 86 / 100

Independiente 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Botafogo RJ Independiente

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Botafogo RJ Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independiente has conceded goals in 89% of their last 28 outings.

Botafogo RJ found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Botafogo RJ remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Botafogo RJ VS Independiente

0.75 Goals Scored 1.38

1.88 Goals Conceded 2.13

63% Over 1.5 88%

38% Over 2.5 75%

25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Botafogo RJ

(Home)

16 Sept

Botafogo RJ

3 : 2

Gremio

12 Sept

Botafogo RJ

1 : 1

Bragantino

06 Sept

Botafogo RJ

0 : 0

Palmeiras

30 Aug

Flamengo RJ

3 : 0

Botafogo RJ

24 Aug

Botafogo RJ

2 : 3

Athletico-PR

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Independiente

(Away)

13 Sept

Club Universitario de Vinto

3 : 1

Independiente

11 Sept

Bolivar

1 : 1

Independiente

06 Sept

Independiente

0 : 4

Bolivar

01 Sept

Tomayapo

3 : 0

Independiente

27 Aug

Independiente

3 : 1

Guabira

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