Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Botev Novi Pazar play Chernomorets Balchik in the Third League - North-East. Chernomorets Balchik are favorites here. Recently, Botev Novi Pazar averaged 1.1 goals scored and 2.23 conceded. Chernomorets Balchik averaged 2.8 goals scored and 0.43 conceded. In past meetings, Botev Novi Pazar won 0, Chernomorets Balchik won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 23, 2026 ended 0:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Botev Novi Pazar and 2.25 for Chernomorets Balchik. This points to a Chernomorets Balchik double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Botev Novi Pazar
15%
Draws
64%
Chernomorets Balchik
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chernomorets Balchik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

90% / Very High Confidence
  • Botev Novi Pazar picked up more points recently compared to Chernomorets Balchik.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 2.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Botev Novi Pazar Clean Sheet 10%
Chernomorets Balchik Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Botev Novi Pazar Chernomorets Balchik
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 25
Draws 5 4
Losses 17 1
Goals Scored 1.1 2.8
Goals Conceded 2.23 0.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Third League - North-East
Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik
0:4
Nov 29, 2025 Third League - North-East
Chernomorets Balchik vs Botev Novi Pazar
4:0
Apr 27, 2025 Third League - North-East
Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik
0:3
Oct 20, 2024 Third League - North-East
Chernomorets Balchik vs Botev Novi Pazar
2:0
Mar 5, 2023 Third League - North-East
Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botev Novi Pazar 21 / 100
Chernomorets Balchik 61 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Botev Novi Pazar Chernomorets Balchik

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chernomorets Balchik Win (2)
Secondary Pick Chernomorets Balchik & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +61.5%
7.69
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.3%
1.54
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Botev Novi Pazar attacking → ← attacking Chernomorets Balchik

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Botev Novi Pazar scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Chernomorets Balchik let in goals in 37% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Botev Novi Pazar went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Chernomorets Balchik lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 79
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 3.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Chernomorets Balchik32274192:1485
2Ludogorets III322543101:1979
3Septemvri Tervel32253489:2278
4Volov Shumen32233693:2872
5Chernolomets32203978:4363
6Benkovski32186868:4060
7Cherno More II32167965:4455
8Ustrem Donchevo321731273:6754
9Olympic Varna321061658:8036
10Aksakovo32941940:6831
11Fratria II32861840:7130
12Svetkavitsa 201432781726:4829
13Botev Novi Pazar32851934:6929
14Dorostol32842029:6728
15Spartak Varna II32752042:7226
16FK Riltzi32642231:8322
17Svetkavitsa3201315:1291