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Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East
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AI Match Summary

The Third League - North-East game between Botev Novi Pazar and Ustrem Donchevo finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Botev Novi Pazar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Botev Novi Pazar
35%
Draws
16%
Ustrem Donchevo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Botev Novi Pazar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Ustrem Donchevo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Botev Novi Pazar taking it.
  • Regular Third League - North-East form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Botev Novi Pazar Clean Sheet 10%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Botev Novi Pazar Ustrem Donchevo
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.38 2.03
Goals Conceded 2 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 Third League - North-East
Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo
5:1
Apr 4, 2026 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Botev Novi Pazar
1:1
Sep 27, 2025 Third League - North-East
Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo
2:1
May 25, 2025 Third League - North-East
Botev Novi Pazar vs Ustrem Donchevo
1:0
Nov 23, 2024 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Botev Novi Pazar
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botev Novi Pazar 40 / 100
Ustrem Donchevo 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Botev Novi Pazar Ustrem Donchevo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ustrem Donchevo conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Botev Novi Pazar scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Botev Novi Pazar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Botev Novi Pazar VS Ustrem Donchevo
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
2 Goals Conceded 3.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Botev Novi Pazar

(Home)
03 Oct
Botev Novi Pazar
1 : 4
Vihren
26 Sept
Cherno More II
1 : 1
Botev Novi Pazar
19 Sept
Botev Novi Pazar
0 : 0
Chernomorets Balchik
13 Sept
Chernolomets
4 : 0
Botev Novi Pazar
05 Sept
Botev Novi Pazar
0 : 0
Ludogorets III
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Ustrem Donchevo

(Away)
03 Oct
Devnya 2005
2 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1
Septemvri Tervel
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2
Ustrem Donchevo
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4
Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Svetkavitsa 2014 8 5 1 2 14:5 16
2 Ludogorets III 7 5 1 1 18:5 16
3 Volov Shumen 7 5 1 1 24:6 16
4 Chernolomets 7 4 2 1 16:6 14
5 Chernomorets Balchik 6 4 2 0 10:4 14
6 Septemvri Tervel 5 3 2 0 12:5 11
7 Benkovski 5 3 1 1 13:6 10
8 Cherno More II 7 3 1 3 11:7 10
9 Botev Novi Pazar 6 2 3 1 12:9 9
10 FK Riltzi 7 3 0 4 8:15 9
11 Fratria II 8 3 0 5 9:24 9
12 Septemvri Dragoevo 7 2 2 3 12:17 8
13 Devnya 2005 7 2 0 4 8:12 9
14 Olympic Varna 7 2 0 5 15:21 6
15 Aksakovo 6 1 1 4 9:20 4
16 Ustrem Donchevo 8 0 1 7 13:26 1
17 Dorostol 6 0 0 5 2:18 0
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